For the first couple of weeks in the NFL, we treat losses as a big deal but sort of an early-season variance type of thing. Now, as we're hurtling towards Halloween and the meat of the season, those losses start to add up kind of quick! The Seahawks, in their attempt to defend their Super Bowl title, are a .500 team after their sixth game of the season. And in Week 6, as we attempt to narrow down some best bets, let's not forget just how quickly a season can feel like it's on the brink.
Which is to say; every game matters, but these midseason games start to really take on importance as teams jockey for position and start to stare up the standings. Motivation is more of a factor later in the year, but there should be plenty of it this week as well as teams start to realize what the fate of their season may entail.
Best bets for NFL Week 6
Chiefs -7.5 vs. Chargers
Andy Reid off the bye (sing it with me now!) is a bit of a played-out trope at this point, with the long-time coach having come back to Earth a bit with his record. He's still 22-13 ATS off the bye, though, and now he gets a chance to really put the final dagger in the Chargers. This Chargers team is desperate for a win and yes, winless teams can be good against the spread in certain spots. But a well-rested Chiefs team that can grind you into a pulp with Kenneth Walker with a strong defense against a Bolts team that is missing everyone on the offensive line and at wide receiver? This feels like decent value and the line has moved up as high as 8.5 in some spots.
Saints-Giants Over 46.5
A pace matchup! The Saints are currently the fastest offense in the NFL, while the Giants are the slowest in the league. I'm sure John Harbaugh would prefer this game to be a bit of a slog but I'm also not sure he has a choice. Such is life with Jameis Winston at quarterback when you're going against a very fast-paced offense missing your best pass rusher. The Saints run a ton of plays, run them fast and are north of 60 percent in neutral pass rate. So there's two ways to get a bunch of points in this game: New Orleans playing catchup and throwing a ton (we've seen Tyler Shough and Co. do that in the second half several times this year), or the Saints getting a lead and the Giants being forced to cut Winston loose.
Texans +2.5 "at" Jaguars (London game)
I would reeeeeeeeally like to get the +3 here, so if you can wait, feel free to do it. The Texans looked DOA at one point but they have to understand how massive this game in London is for them. Win and the schedule gets extremely favorable. The Texans might not be as elite a team as we thought they were before the season, but they're still good. C.J. Stroud might be playing the best football of his career and we could see the Marvin Harrison Jr. rejuvenation begin as early as this weekend. At the very least, he'll be a nice decoy to take some heat off Nico Collins in the pass game. With a low total in a funky foreign spot, I want the points.
Week 6 NFL player props
Germie Bernard Over 41.5 receiving yards
The second-round rookie stepped up big time for the Steelers in their win over the Colts in Week 5 and the buzz around him is real: Jim Nantz told a story about him ripping off playcalls in meetings that blew the quarterbacks away. Don't take that too lightly, because it's the sort of thing that makes Aaron Rodgers trust a wide receiver. Rodgers even went back to him after a few drops and I believe sees him as critical to the Steelers season. The Bucs are a pass funnel and with DK Metcalf soaking up the primary coverage, Bernard should benefit again in Week 6. This is a ladder-worthy setup for him.
Wan'Dale Robinson Over 4.5 receptions
In that same vein, let's attack the Colts defensive backfield with a secondary receiver again, this time targeting PPR scam artist Wan'Dale Robinson and his receptions total. The 3.5's are way too juicy, but the price on him to catch five passes is really nice at +125. Robinson's hit this number in three straight games and five of six games this season and given the spread here, we should expect Cam Ward to be throwing the ball plenty in the second half. We don't care if it's five catches for 10 yards, just get Robinson the ball and alleviate some of the pass rush.
Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 6
We're rolling with a half unit for most of these as we're taking some deeper, plus-money shots on most of our touchdown looks this week.
Drake London (-105)
We've got a game with a massive total (north of 50) that's being played indoors with a couple of defenses that should absolutely allow plenty of action through the air. The Bears will likely load up to stop Bijan Robinson, leaving Drake London some looks in the red zone. He's been a monster this season with Michael Penix Jr. under center and is a candidate for some positive touchdown regression. If we get a shootout, London is going to find paydirt for the first time this year.
Blake Corum (+140)
Corum is fully capable of finding the end zone in any game script, but this is a perfect setup for the Rams backup. Los Angeles, as a massive double-digit favorite, is going to be aggressive about trying to put this game away. But if they have a big lead, I expect the Rams to lean heavily on Corum and get Kyren Williams some rest. That should mean a pile of second-half carries and all the red-zone work he can handle. We could also get an early score from Corum during the usual rotations that Sean McVay employs.
Keon Coleman (+290)
