Texas vs. Florida prediction, pick, odds, spread: Longhorns look for rebound against free-falling Gators

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian is sticking to his guns — in this case, his play-calling — and believes the scrutiny of Arch Manning is unjustified heading into Saturday's game against Florida.

Manning's inconsistency has kept the Longhorns' offense largely out of rhythm this season, a critique he'll try to correct against the SEC's worst defense. After a loss to rival Oklahoma sent the Longhorns falling six spots in the AP Poll, Texas is hoping to use the tailspinning Gators as their punching bag to stay in the College Football Playoff picture.

Florida has lost back-to-back SEC games in blowout fashion, tumbling out of the national rankings without a clear solution to stop the hemorrhaging. Sumrall said progress is sometimes "dysfunctional" and agreed with some of the booing he experienced on the sideline of last week's loss to South Carolina.

The Gators struggled to block Gamecocks edge Dylan Stewart and now must endure the athleticism of Colin Simmons, who leads college football with 9.5 sacks. Simmons collected five sacks during a win at Tennessee last month and is the runaway favorite to win the SEC's Defensive Player of the Year honor.

Where to watch Texas vs. Florida live

Date: Saturday, Oct. 17 | Time: 12 p.m. ET

Location: Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium -- Austin, Texas

TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

Texas vs. Florida: Need to know

Turnovers and touchdowns: Manning's production against Power Four competition has been pedestrian -- four touchdown passes and four interceptions. Two came during the fourth quarter of last week's loss to Oklahoma, including a pick-six that swung the game's momentum to the Sooners. Manning's been sacked 12 times through five games -- 10 coming against Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma. If there's a get-right opportunity for Florida's defense, perhaps this is it.

Frightening defensive numbers: Florida ranks last in the SEC in total defense, explosive plays allowed, pass defense and 15th in scoring defense this season. Sumrall said this week he was taking a closer look at multiple areas of his team to try and fix what has nuked this 4-0 start for the Gators. It starts with getting stops on defense against the Longhorns.

Longhorns' second 'revenge' game: A failure-to-show loss against the Gators in Gainesville ultimately kept Texas out of the CFP last year. Now, Sarkisian's squad has a chance to move to 2-0 this season in revenge opportunities after beating Ohio State in Week 2. Texas remains in this week's updated CFP projection with a first-round home game and has a clear-cut path to the 12-team bracket, but Saturday's a must-win.

Texas vs. Florida prediction, picks

Texas has problems on offense, but Florida's even worse on defense. Consecutive SEC blowouts have erased the goodwill from a 4-0 start and No. 8 ranking, and a secondary LaNorris Sellers picked apart last week now gets Manning. Consistency hasn't been Manning's calling card, but this matchup should restore some confidence in the Longhorns' passing game. Florida isn't giving anyone reason to trust its defense, especially against an opponent with something to prove. Last season's loss to the Gators should have Texas' attention. The Longhorns return the favor this weekend. Pick: Texas -10.5