Nigel Farage faces scrutiny as Reform UK grapples with donation scandal and internal tensions

More than 30 years after he first stood for Parliament, Nigel Farage seems to be approaching the climax of his long, storied, and controversial career.

The big unknown: can the 62-year-old put his radical policies into practice by becoming prime minister?

The latest revelations about the party's apparent attitude to donations have ended up dragging Reform into another cycle of bad headlines.

Arguably how it plays out depends on the answers to three central questions.

The Reform leader is already facing investigations into his own finances and those of his party, and concerns about his friendship with a convicted fraudster.

And now there is the possibility of yet more inquiries after an undercover sting which targeted Reform's handling of wealthy donors.

An investigation, filmed by Verbatim Investigations and broadcast by Channel 4, shows a senior Farage aide suggesting a way to get around electoral law to secure a foreign donation of £500,000 for the party.

Reform denies any wrongdoing and claims to have "been the target of a hoax perpetuated by foreign funded climate change activists".

Meanwhile Farage's personal popularity already seems to be slightly on the slide and before news of the investigation broke, I spoke to commentators about the party's prospects.

"Among true believers Nigel Farage's personal ratings remain as strong as ever," says Luke Tryl from pollsters More in Common.

"But among the wider public he's taken a dip from being the party leader with the highest net approval this time last year, to being close to tying [Green Party leader Zack] Polanski at the bottom of the pack today".

The barrage of questions about finances prompted the Reform leader to quit Parliament and call the Clacton by-election but his resounding victory in that contest last month has not quietened his critics.

Even some on Farage's own side believe the stresses of the summer have changed the Reform leader's mood during public appearances.

"Why has Nigel, the most successful politician across 25 years, changed from the man who people want to have a drink with?" asks Tim Montgomerie, the Tory defector who was recently suspended from Reform for criticising senior figures.

"He's looked miserable, defensive, and complaining. He needs to get over it, and I think we'll see a better, more attractive Nigel in the coming days."

Farage's biographer, the veteran political journalist Michael Crick, has also noticed a shift.

"You've seen a much more aggressive Farage in the last three or four months. He's gone from the affable to the laughable," says Crick. "That's not going to appeal to waverers, or to moderate conservatives who might be thinking about defecting."

Crick is one of at least eight journalists to have been banned from Reform's conference. Many of them have uncovered uncomfortable details about the party's finances.

In response, Reform says that they have granted accreditation to at least 1,000 members of the media.

The party's 15 months of consistently leading opinion polls are now over.

That is partly due to a resurgent Labour Party under Andy Burnham, and the rise of Restore, a party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe.

But regular headlines about party finances, plus the ongoing parliamentary investigation into Farage's decision not to register the £5m "unconditional gift" he received from a billionaire, could also be changing voters' minds.

"People still think Britain isn't working," says Tryl. "And the populist right is doing well in pretty much every European country. But the £5m gift, Nigel Farage's friendship with Donald Trump, and the [US] president's war in Iran have prompted some concerns about Reform".

The party's strategy is to fight back, talk up the likelihood of a snap election next spring and unveil plans for their first 100 days in government. This includes a relentless onslaught of new policies from housing, to the economy and immigration.

"We are in an attention economy and the moment you stop swimming, you die," says one party strategist. "We need to keep it up."

The appearance at the conference today of France's 30-year-old right-wing star Jordan Bardella, is an attempt to show off the international links Farage has fostered. Bardella could be France's prime minister if his colleague Marine Le Pen wins the presidency

In the coming weeks Reform plan to unveil more members of their "shadow cabinet". Insiders say their new recruits will be experienced, talented figures from outside politics. "You'll be impressed. I promise," says one involved.

Yet Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has also refreshed her top team and is showing signs of successfully rebuilding her party's reputation.

"The big risk for Reform is if the Tories pull ahead consistently," says Tryl. "There is a chunk of Tory-Reform waverers who only care about beating Labour, and they will vote for whoever is in the lead in the polls."

"Burnham is a more formidable opponent," concedes Tim Montgomerie. "But however much charisma and vibe the PM has, reality will soon catch up with him."

"There aren't going to be any singalongs at conference this year," says a Reform aide. "Or any COVID deniers."

At last year's event, regional mayor Andrea Jenkyns sang a self-penned rock song on stage, and a guest speaker claimed that Covid vaccines were linked to the cancers of King Charles III and the Princess of Wales. This time, the party is hoping to project a far more serious image.

Farage has also finally surmounted many of the internal problems that bedevilled his previous parties. Ukip in particular had significant struggles with money, resources and organisation.

In contrast, Reform UK has oodles of cash thanks to the generosity of crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne. The party recently received another £4m from Ben Delo, a crypto billionaire.

The party has in just two years built a slick press, marketing and social media operation.

But insiders say there are still problems with candidate selection and polling, and Farage's loyalty to long-term aides is partly to blame.

"There are too many staff who Nigel's had for too long, who he is loyal to, but who won't take Reform from where they are to where they need to be," says Montgomerie.

"The quality of Reform opinion polling is nowhere near as good as the Tories are getting. They never know what's going on at the ground level. Their intelligence at the last three by-elections has been way off."

The aggressive style of the party's home affairs spokesman, Zia Yusuf, has also led to internal friction.

Yusuf is credited with professionalising the party and is hugely popular with Reform members, but not with all of his colleagues. Last month he called former Tory Defence Secretary Ben Wallace a "traitor to Britain" and was reprimanded by Farage.

"Zia's a valued colleague," says one party insider with a grin. Others are more blunt and believe the current situation is unsustainable. "You can't keep blowing stuff up. You can't keep on massacring your own side," says one senior Farage ally. "Nigel is loyal but he's also pragmatic."

Reform may have had a difficult few months, yet they have maintained a big base of supporters.

"It's easy to think they are finished and on the way out," says Crick.

"But to have more than 20% in the opinion polls is way beyond what they got at the election, and it's a very good base to build from".

Whether or not Burnham calls a snap general election next spring, Farage is in the best position of his life to get hold of real power.

This weekend's conference, and how Farage responds to the latest allegations about his colleagues, should give us a strong sign as to whether he is ruthless and focussed enough to achieve it.