Italy's return to nuclear energy comes up against a first obstacle: the cost of energy. For the small modular reactors the government is aiming for, producing electricity could initially cost up to 217 euros per megawatt hour. A high figure, which raises questions about the competitiveness of the technology and the sustainability of investments. The country can count on a leading industrial supply chain, but to return to producing energy from the atom it will also have to overcome regulatory uncertainties, implementation times and local resistance.
This is the framework outlined by the Nuclear Energy Innovation Outlook 2026, created by Energy&Strategy of the School of Management of the Polytechnic of Milan. The study comes after the final approval, on September 23, of the enabling law on nuclear power, which paves the way for the return of the atom to the national energy mix. The implementing decrees remain to be approved, the authorization procedures defined and the sites identified, overcoming local resistance. The possibility of a new referendum also remains in the background.
The government's strategy focuses above all on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), reactors of smaller size and power than traditional power plants, designed to encourage the mass production of components. The main obstacle is economic. According to the Polytechnic, the average cost of electricity produced by the first Italian SMR, calculated over the entire life of the plant, could fluctuate between 110 and 217 euros per megawatt hour. The range considered realistic for the first project is between 135 and 196 euros, while the subsequent diffusion of the technology could reduce costs to 110-147 euros by 2050, in the scenario of greater development.
"Nuclear can play a key role in the national energy mix", observes Vittorio Chiesa, director of Energy&Strategy. “It is not the most convenient source of electricity, but it ensures continuous and programmable basic production, helps stabilize the price of energy and, compared to renewables, involves lower investments in networks and storage”.
The topic is very relevant in an electricity system destined to change profoundly. Italian demand could double by 2050, driven by electric mobility, heat pumps, industry and data centers. With non-programmable renewables destined to cover 75-83% of generation, it will become necessary to support decarbonized sources capable of guaranteeing continuity. According to the study, an optimized mix of renewables, nuclear and gas plants with CO2 capture could reduce the average cost of electricity generation by 15-17% by 2050.
Meanwhile, the global center of gravity of nuclear power is shifting towards Asia: of the 81 GW currently under construction, 57 are located on the Asian continent, of which 40 in China. Western Europe has just 7 GW, while the United States has no new construction sites. However, the European PINC program foresees investments of 241 billion euros in civil nuclear power until 2050.
For Italy, the game is also industrial. Domestic companies are already active in the production of components, design and dismantling of plants. “Italian companies must enter into the projects for the construction of Small modular reactors and Advanced modular reactors in the world”, underlines Chiesa, indicating international partnerships, technological specialization and training as the conditions for strengthening the supply chain.
