Does Brazil have an economic development policy? There are several. So many that there are none.
Economic policy is much more than fiscal (spending, taxes) and monetary (interest, credit) policy. These are the issues that the country has been dealing with, just as it discusses the World Cup, BBB, the dating of "famous" people or the backs of influencers, often with the same mentality.
Lula 3 has at least three development programs. There is Nova Indústria Brasil, of "neoindustrialization" in agroindustry, health, infrastructure and transport, digital, bioeconomy, energy transition and defense. It has the Ecological Transformation Plan, to encourage advances in industry, energy, agriculture, infrastructure and finance, guided by social and environmental justice. There is the New PAC, which is Minha Casa, Minha Vida and infrastructure.
It is easy to see that the plans overlap or deal with essentially related subjects. They are led by three ministries (Development, Finance and Civil House). In practice and technique, plans and policies do not speak to each other, if not contradict each other. They have too many goals. There is no general evaluation of results or clarity of final objectives. Speaking of which, the investment ("productive") rate, already tiny, has fallen.
Not long ago, the government approved in Congress the National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals (PNMCE), that of "rare earths", "sovereignty", a "gold cycle" that this time would be national redemption, according to leftists. It is a necessary instrument to guide the exploration of these resources. The intention is for ores to be transformed into advanced industrial products. Hmm. Whatever. To do so, it needs research and development.
The PNMCE requires that a (minimum) portion of mining and processing companies' revenue go to research and development, as well as providing for a fund (one more) and subsidies (even more) for processing and "adding value" (an expression of misunderstanding here). Hmm.
The law is very new, months old, of course. Everything remains to be done in terms of regulation: who will take care of this little shop, the "governance", and how to decide how the money would go to universities or such and such a project, for example.
Apart from the state universities in São Paulo (and look there), the research universities (which are public) are falling apart and without a project. It was with research and staff training that the country developed oil, hydroelectric plants, biofuels, agriculture, aircraft, certain vaccines (although we don't know exactly at what cost, but let's pass).
State institutions fundamental to development are in poverty. How to create an economic program without good statistics? We don't even know which, how many and what Brazilian companies are like. The IBGE is in shambles, as is the National Mining Agency (the Geological Service is limited), when it comes to mineral redemption. Make sectoral ("industrial") policy based on what?
The policies seem to be invented haphazardly. How are priorities chosen? Based on what prices, availability of inputs and technologies, technical frameworks for production and research, any national advantages, global competitive environment, mapping of market or coordination failures?
To do this right, we need intelligent formulation, statistics, strong state institutions, evaluation, measured ambition, clear objectives. We don't have it.
