Will the number of people taking the CSAT exceed 500,000 in 8 years? 'N Aquatic' variable

With the 2027 College Scholastic Ability Test (CSAT) just four days away, attention is being paid to whether the actual number of test takers will exceed 500,000 for the first time in eight years.

The number of applicants for the CSAT decreased slightly compared to last year, but the application rate has increased for the past five consecutive years, and the number of graduate applicants has increased to the largest extent in 23 years ahead of the final exam of the current CSAT system.

According to the Korea Institute for Curriculum and Evaluation, which oversees the CSAT on the 15th, the total number of test takers who applied for this CSAT was 551,864, a decrease of 2,310 (0.4%) from the previous year.

However, looking at recent trends, there is a possibility that the number of applicants for the CSAT will actually increase.

The number of applicants decreased from 447,669 in 2023 to 444,870 in 2024, but then increased for two consecutive years to 463,486 in 2025 and 493,896 in 2026.

If the number of students taking the CSAT in the 2027 school year is 6,105 more than the previous year, the number will exceed 500,000 for the first time in 8 years since the 2019 school year (530,220 people).

In addition, the annual application rate (the number of applicants divided by the number of applicants) increased for five consecutive years from 85.3% in 2021 to 87.9% in 2022, 88.1% in 2023, 88.2% in 2024, 88.7% in 2025, and 89.1% in 2026.

Lim Seong-ho, CEO of Jongno Academy, analyzed regarding the increase in the test taking rate, "It can be seen that there has been an increase in the number of 'CSAT group' test-takers who plan to go to college mainly through the CSAT due to unfavorable academic records."

He continued, “However, it is not easy to predict the increase or decrease in the number of test takers given that there may be many imaginary numbers among the ‘N test takers’ (takers who attempt college entrance exams more than twice).”

When dividing applicants for the 2027 CSAT by high school attendance, 355,391 (64.4%) are enrolled students, 173,706 (31.5%) are graduates, and 22,767 (4.1%) have passed the qualification exam.

The number of enrolled students decreased by 16,506 (4.4%) from the previous year, but the number of graduates increased by 13,784 (8.6%) and those who passed the qualification exam increased by 412 (1.8%).

In particular, the number of graduates is the highest in 23 years.

This year is the last year of the current CSAT system, with the Korean language, math, and research elective subjects being abolished from the 2028 school year, and the number of N students has increased significantly due to the introduction of the regional doctor system.

If there are many N test takers who do not come to the test site, the overall test taking rate may drop.

The application rate for current students in the 2026 CSAT was 89.6%, but the application rate for graduates and qualification exam takers was 88.2%, slightly lower than that for current students.

For the 2025 school year, the application rate for current students was 88.8%, and the application rate for graduates and qualification exam takers was 88.5%.

In the long term, the number of applicants and test takers for the CSAT, which was introduced starting with college entrance in 1994, has decreased significantly due to the decline in students due to the low birth rate.

After recording the largest number of applicants and 868,366 test takers in the 2000 CSAT, respectively, the number continued to decline overall, reaching a minimum of 493,434 applicants and 421,034 test takers in the 2021 school year.

The application rate peaked at 97.5% in 2001, then declined, and has continued to fall below 90% since 2018.

The significant increase in rolling admissions for college entrance in the 2002 school year had a significant impact on the decline in the college entrance exam application rate.

This is because the number of cases of not taking the test has increased even after submitting the CSAT application after finally passing the rolling admissions process.