A figure that smells like a scorch, a debt that will stop at nothing. The yield on 30-year US bonds has climbed above 5%. This is a level not seen since 2007, the year before the global financial crisis. The cause is no longer just budgetary. Artificial intelligence giants are now borrowing at a pace that is shaking up the entire bond market, and Bitcoin finds itself caught in the crossfire.
The 30-year yield returns to its 2007 levels
The figure is enough to make you dizzy. On August 14, the 30-year yield closed at 5.25%, its highest of the year. The 10-year yield is around 4.68%, up almost 0.5 points since January 2.
This rise owes nothing to chance. According to Bank of America economists, around 0.3 points of this increase can be explained by the supply of corporate debt and real estate credit alone. On the 10-year bond, this new supply alone would explain nearly 60% of the movement observed since January.
The American federal deficit reached $1.8 trillion over the first ten months of the 2026 budget year, or $169 billion more than last year according to the Congressional Budget Office. Washington is therefore not borrowing less. It is simply borrowing in an increasingly crowded market.
Luke. In 2025, this figure will increase to 131 billion. At the end of July 2026, it already reached $192 billion.
A single sector now accounts for 27% of all net investment grade bond issuance in the United States. Nomura Securities estimates that tech borrowing today is equivalent to about 25% of net sales of Treasury bonds to private investors. A year ago, this ratio was five times lower.
Some shows are dizzying. Alphabet recently placed 30-year debt at around 6.4%, 1.15 points higher than a comparable Treasury bond. A bond to finance a Meta data center paid more than 7.5% last month. Additionally, the five largest hyperscalers have already issued $159 billion in bonds in 2026, compared to an annual average of just $28 billion over the 2020-2024 period.
The slate is only just beginning. JPMorgan Asset Management projects $5.5 trillion in AI-related capital spending by 2030, including $2.1 trillion financed by new bonds. “It’s a crowding out effect. We have to remember that we are only at the beginning, this story of hyperscaler bond issues is only just beginning,” notes Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM, on Bloomberg Television.
Treasury's bet sent Bitcoin soaring this week
It is in this tense context that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted a parade. On Wednesday, he announced the doubling of the long bond buyback program, from 2 to at least 4 billion dollars per operation. A gesture to calm a bond market that has been on edge for months.
The bet worked, at least temporarily. Bitcoin jumped to $75,750 on Friday in the Asian session, driven by a spectacular short squeeze and a temporary easing of long-term yields. Enough to make some observers say that the crypto market was finally finding some air again.
But Barclays put a number on the exercise's limit: Bessent's move toward more short debt would reduce the net supply of long bonds by about $440 billion this year. Except that the borrowing of hyperscalers is expected to increase by $474 billion over the same period. The space freed up by the Treasury is already filled, and beyond, by tech.
Bitcoin, collateral hostage of a bond standoff
The basic mechanism always remains the same. A bond pays a coupon. Bitcoin, no. When an investor can keep 6% or 7% at Alphabet or Meta, two of the most profitable companies in the world, Bitcoin has to beat that yield just to stay competitive with dead cash.
Over the last twelve months preceding this week's rally, Bitcoin was down more than 46%. Gold had climbed more than 32% over the same period. A gap of almost 79 percentage points between the two safe haven assets, to the total advantage of the yellow metal.
The Bitcoin scarcity argument relies largely on the idea that perpetual government indebtedness will eventually drive investors toward non-dilutive assets. This year, this argument did not pay off. Gold captured most of this demand, not Bitcoin. The surge on August 21 changes the trend of the week, not necessarily that of the year.
