Tusk's camp with no chance of winning a majority? The new poll will please the right wing

KO will win but can't sleep peacefully?

In the United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska, the Civic Coalition achieved the best result, with 30.6 percent willing to vote. subjects. It has a significant advantage over Law and Justice, which is supported by 18 percent. respondents. Konfederacja tops the polls with 14.1 percent.

A survey for WP shows that the following would also enter the Sejm: Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korona Polskiej, for which 9 percent want to vote. respondents, Left (7.4%) and Rozwoju Plus by Mateusz Morawiecki (5.7%).

Which parties may not exceed the electoral threshold? The survey result was below 5%. obtained by: Polish People's Party (4.4%), Razem (3.9%) and Poland 2050 (0.5%). The implementation of such a scenario in next year's elections would mean that there would be two parties co-forming the current government outside the Sejm.

How might the seats be divided?

In addition to the survey results, WP also publishes a forecast of the distribution of seats, prepared in accordance with the method of Professor Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University.

The Civic Coalition would introduce 190 deputies to the Sejm, and Law and Justice - 103. The Confederation's benches would seat 77 people.

According to the survey, Grzegorz Braun's camp would have 41 representatives in the new Sejm. This is 11 more than in the case of the Left (30 seats).

After the elections, the smallest parliamentary club would be created by Mateusz Morawiecki's Rozwoju Plus, which could introduce 19 MPs to Wiejska.

To create a majority in the Sejm, and thus have a chance to govern stably and pass your projects, you must have the support of more than half of the 460 MPs. The poll shows that KO and the Left would have a total of 220 seats - which is 11 fewer than the minimum majority.

The PiS + Rozwoju Plus + Konfederacja + Konfederacja Korona Polskiej bloc would have 240 seats, i.e. a fairly stable majority. Of course, it is difficult to say whether such a solution is realistic, taking into account Jarosław Kaczyński's skeptical attitude towards both Confederations and the splitters from his party who created Development Plus.

An agreement with Rozwoj Plus or at least some of its MPs could give Donald Tusk's camp a chance for a majority. This solution, however, does not seem very realistic, considering that Mateusz Morawiecki has been building his political position on criticism of the KO leader for years.

The United Surveys by IBRiS survey for Wirtualna Polska was conducted on October 2-4, 2026 using a combined CATI (computer-assisted telephone interviews) and CAWI (internet surveys) method on a nationwide, representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles.