Italy's GDP will grow by 0.9% in 2026 against 0.5% in 2025, and then contract to 0.6% in 2027: this is what emerges from the OECD's Interim Economic Outlook presented today in Paris. The estimates have been revised compared to the previous June Outlook. Before the summer, the organization predicted growth of 0.5% for Italy (0.4 points less than today) for 2026. For 2027, the estimate remained unchanged at 0.6%.
World GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027 against 3.4% in 2025. The estimates have been slightly revised compared to the previous June Outlook. Before the summer, the organization forecast growth of 2.8% (0.1 point less than today) for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027 (0.1 point more than today). According to the Parisian organisation, global economic prospects remain "strongly conditioned by the achievement of a lasting solution to the conflict in the Middle East". In the United States, the OECD points out, annual growth is expected to stand at 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with "strong investments related to artificial intelligence partially offset by a slowdown in consumer spending and real income growth". For the eurozone, the Paris-based international organization estimates "a GDP increase of 1.0% in both 2026 and 2027, thanks to strengthening demand as energy prices normalize and new initiatives in the defense sector gain momentum". In China, “growth is expected to contract to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.”
The global economic outlook "remains strongly influenced by the achievement of a lasting solution to the conflict in the Middle East. Energy prices have recently started to rise again due to the intensification of interruptions to production and exports in the Gulf economies". “High refining margins, due to production bottlenecks, place further upward pressure on consumer prices and business costs,” continues the OECD in the document entitled 'Resist subsequent shocks', adding that “the prices of some agricultural commodities have also increased sharply in recent months, partly due to the impact of extreme weather conditions on supply”. The body highlights how long-term interest rates have "reached the highest levels in the last fifteen years (or more) in many economies, in the face of growing concerns about long-term fiscal risks and the large issuance of bonds by companies linked to artificial intelligence. Nonetheless - the OECD points out - general financial conditions remain favourable, supported by high stock markets and a recovery in credit growth". The OECD warns that today there is "considerable uncertainty regarding these prospects, in particular regarding possible developments in energy markets. The trend in oil and gas prices depends crucially on the duration of supply disruptions, the ability of producers and consumers to adapt and on geopolitical developments". "A faster normalization of energy markets - write the economists in the document presented today in Paris - would ease inflationary pressures and support economic activity, while new or more persistent disruptions could lead to both higher inflation and weaker growth".
The OECD expects inflation to rise in the short term, reflecting rising commodity prices, before gradually easing in 2027 as contracting energy prices and tighter monetary policy help limit broader price pressures. According to the OECD, overall G20 inflation will fall from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027". In Italy, again according to the Paris-based international organisation, inflation is expected to fall from 3% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027 (0.4 points more than the previous June outlook). ''The continuous changes in trade policies, both in terms of duties and restrictions exports, increases political uncertainty and contributes to disrupting supply chains": this is the warning contained in the OECD Interim Economic Outlook presented today in Paris. According to the Paris-based international organisation, ''it estimates that the new US bilateral duties, in force since July, have raised the average effective rate of US duties by approximately one percentage point.'
