The burden of childcare and care is rapidly increasing... Korea's total dependency ratio rises from OECD lowest to highest in 2048

As low birth rates and aging population become more severe, the burden of childcare and care in Korea is expected to increase the fastest and to the highest level among member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Mandatory expenditures in the welfare sector are expected to exceed 250 trillion won by 2030. The government predicted that total mandatory spending in 2065 would be close to a quarter of gross domestic product (GDP).

◇ Korea’s total dependency ratio is OECD lowest → highest… Old-age dependency ratio will be higher than that of Japan in 2045

According to the calculation based on the OECD's latest population estimate on the 8th, Korea's old-age dependency ratio is 31.3 in 2026, but will increase to 103.3 in 2070.

The old-age dependency ratio shows how many elderly people (age 65 or older) must be supported by 100 working-age people (age 15 to 64). This year, we only need to take care of 31 people over the age of 65, but this means that we will need to support about 103 people in 2070.

After 44 years, the burden of supporting the elderly in Korea will increase to 3.3 times the current level.

This year, Korea's old-age dependency ratio is the 18th lowest among 38 OECD member countries.

It is 18.9 people lower than the highest in Japan (50.3 people).

However, in 2045, it will reach 68.4, higher than Japan (67.6) and become the country with the largest dependency burden among OECD countries. Since then, it has maintained its lead among member countries for which population estimates until 2070 are available.

Korea's old-age dependency ratio increased by 72.0 in the 44 years until 2070, showing the steepest increase among OECD countries.

The country with the second largest increase during the same period was Costa Rica, with the old-age dependency ratio rising by 54.2 people, changing from 17.6 to 71.8 people. In the case of Japan, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to increase by only 24.0 people over 44 years, reaching 74.2 people in 2070.

Korea's total dependency ratio, a population indicator that indicates the socioeconomic burden of support that a country's labor force must bear, including the elderly over 65 and children under 14, is also increasing the fastest among OECD countries.

Korea's total dependency ratio is 45.4 this year, but is expected to increase by 71.9 to 117.3 in 2070.

This year, 100 people aged 15 to 64 need to support about 45 children and seniors, but by 2070, there will be about 117 people.

Currently, Korea has the lowest total dependency ratio among OECD member countries. However, in 2048, the number will reach 90.2, catching up with Greece (90.1) and ranking first in the OECD.

The total dependency ratio in 2070 is 2.6 times that of 2026. This increase is also the largest in Korea.

However, the old-age dependency ratio or total dependency ratio calculated based on the OECD's estimated population may not match the actual dependency burden. The population that actually supports the elderly or youth is not the entire working-age population, but the employed with income. This is because when calculating the dependency ratio, the population aged 15 to 64 is assumed to be the dependent age group, regardless of whether they are employed or not.

If the number of elderly people who delay retirement and continue to work increases, or if the number of young people who are unemployed increases, the actual burden of support may differ from the dependency ratio calculated based on population estimates.

◇ Mandatory welfare spending exceeds 250 trillion won in 2030... Next year, the number of elementary school students will fall below 300,000 for the first time.

Reports from major organizations can be used to gauge the level of increased burden due to low birth rates and an aging population.

In the 'National Financial Management Plan for 2026-2030' submitted to the National Assembly in September this year, the government predicted that mandatory expenditures for the elderly, including basic pension and long-term care insurance for the elderly, will amount to KRW 33.114 trillion in 2030, an increase of KRW 7.3913 trillion (28.7%) from this year (KRW 25.7227 trillion).

It is predicted that statutory expenditures in the welfare sector, including expenditures for the elderly and the four major pensions, will reach KRW 256.6615 trillion in 2030, an increase of KRW 60.3799 trillion (30.8%).

In contrast, the National Assembly Budget Office predicted that statutory spending in the welfare sector will reach 273.8 trillion won in 2030, which is about 73.9 trillion won (37.0%) more than this year (199.9 trillion won). As of 2030, there is a difference in observations of over 17 trillion won between the government and the planning agency.

According to the '2025-2065 long-term fiscal outlook' submitted by the government to the National Assembly in September last year, the ratio of mandatory spending to GDP will rise from 13.7% in 2025 to 23.3% in 2065 due to the effects of aging. In the '2025-2072 NABO Long-Term Fiscal Outlook' released in February of the same year, the Ministry of Planning predicted that mandatory spending would increase from 13.9% of GDP in 2025 to 21.6% in 2072.

The reason the dependency ratio is rising so quickly is because the number of births is rapidly decreasing.

The annual number of births increased to 1,024,773 in 1971, but declined thereafter, falling by 500,000 in 2002 and reaching only 254,341 last year.

With elementary school enrollment notices scheduled to begin next month, the number of first-grade elementary school students next year is expected to fall below 300,000 for the first time since 1964, when enrollment statistics were compiled. Those who will enter first grade next year are mainly children born in 2020.

At that time, there were 272,337 children born, and they will turn 30 in 2050, the age at which they will begin full-fledged activities in the labor market. It appears that a time will come when those born during the population cliff period will have to bear a large burden to support those born before 1980.