One Nation proposes net negative migration, dismissing economic warnings

One Nation is "not afraid" to drive migration to negative levels, with its Treasury spokesman saying he will follow the will of the people, not warnings from economists in deciding how deeply to cut migration rates.

Business and the university sector have warned One Nation's proposal to cut migration by about 750,000 places over three years would devastate the economy.

Speaking on ABC National Forum, Mr Joyce said voter concerns on migration had to be respected.

"The will of the Australian people is so pronounced, this has to be dealt with, we will deal with it," Mr Joyce said.

Political commentator George Megalogenis said no government had ever purposefully caused a net outflow of migrants, adding migration had been negative only four times in Australia's history: twice during the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s, and twice during the deployment of soldiers during the first and second world wars.

"If you're going to take ... 766,000 people out of the Australian economy and society for three years, you have tanked the economy in a way that is on the scale of the depression of the 1890s and 1930s," Mr Megalogenis said.

Net overseas migration has been falling from its peak in mid-2023, when international borders reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic.

While the surge of migrant arrivals has slowed to pre-COVID rates, the number of migrants departing has also remained flat, leading to migration rates still above the government's long-term forecasts and above the pace of housing construction.

Joyce: People 'tired' of economists

The National Forum heard views on migration amid a raging debate on the issue — while Labor, the Coalition and One Nation have all taken a position to cut migration rates, the details of which visa categories should be cut prompts fierce reactions from sectors where there are often already workforce shortages.

Earlier today, One Nation announced its plan to heavily restrict the number of international students allowed to study in Australia and blocking skilled workers from bringing family to Australia.

Net migration would be net negative for three years — meaning more people leaving the country than arriving — until an ongoing cap of 130,000 places a year took effect.

Mr Joyce defended One Nation's proposal, but dismissed questions about the economic impact it could have.

"The issue of what it is going to cost I think is contentious, but I have no concern about following the will of the Australian people," Mr Joyce said.

"I think the Australian people are sort of tired of the fact that you have to go to an economist to come up with public policy, to go to the Parliamentary Budget Office, and, to be quite frank, I have been around this game for a while and I have never seen a forward estimates in any budgetary paper be even close to the mark."

Mr Joyce said he was not worried about what the Parliamentary Budget Office or another office might conclude about One Nation's migration policy "because they're not elected, I am".

Earlier, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) warned that pursuing a pre-determined migration target was a mistake.

"If you are basing the outcome on a set of arbitrary numbers and an arbitrary target, which is not achievable without across-the-board cuts in a whole range of categories, then you are going to do long-term damage to the Australian economy," ACCI chief executive Andrew McKellar said.

Speaking on National Forum, former deputy prime minister and Nationals MP John Anderson said Australia had only avoided recession because of high migration rates.

But he said that voters were being drawn away from the major parties by a concern about migration.

"A balanced, reasonable, immigration rate is good economically, it's good socially," Mr Anderson told National Forum.

"Whilst we agree 'the law of the land' really does apply but we need to realise how badly broken it is.

"We are here because One Nation has captured the initiative, because vast numbers of Australians think the system is now not working for them."

Labor and Coalition yet to settle migration policy

Both Labor and the Coalition have announced their own intentions to cut migration as One Nation's popularity has surged.

The federal government has a target to reach a net migration rate of 225,000 a year by 2028, but is yet to detail new policy intended to bring down migration from the current rate of about 300,000 a year.

Labor's planned changes to migration were postponed several weeks ago, and continue to be debated by cabinet.

The Coalition, meanwhile, has signalled its intention to tie Australia's migration program to housing construction rates to ensure that migration does not outpace housing supply — though it has not yet detailed that proposal.

Frontbencher Andrew Hastie said cutting migration would require "trade offs", which was why his party was still working through its position.

"We are committed to this, to getting it right though, that is the difference between us and One Nation," Mr Hastie said.

While much of the debate has focused on what level to cut migration by, and population pressures on housing and infrastructure, there has also been a question around who should be allowed to migrate to Australia.

One Nation has proposed banning some migrants by preventing travel from countries where the Department of Foreign Affairs has issued a "do not travel" advisory due to terrorism or other security risks.

And the Coalition has proposed tightening the test for prospective migrants to make compliance with a statement of Australian values a binding visa condition, and delay access to social security supports for non-citizens.

Human rights advocate and lawyer Nyadol Nyuon said trying to pin criminality on certain communities was the kind of thing dividing Australians.

Ms Nyuon said the migration debate was often used as a placeholder for conversations around race.

"I don't have to look a particular way to love this country, but whenever we attempt to speak about how our belonging can look like, you meet such resistance, and the majority of the time that resistance comes from how you look," Ms Nyuon said.