UN: El Niño could be the strongest in the last 40 years

El Niño could have unprecedented intensity and exceed the patterns observed in the last four decades, said this Wednesday (21) the director of the United Nations meteorological agency.

El Niño is expected to bring a heat wave to some regions and shake up rainfall patterns, causing severe drought, while in other regions it could cause flooding, said Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

Report

Global warming is expected to be more intense than previous projections, even in the most optimistic scenario, with average temperatures rising to 1.7 to 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, according to a UN report released today.

Despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy and climate policies that are reducing emissions in many countries, the report showed that “urgent and rigorous” reductions are still needed to achieve the best possible scenario.

The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) report indicated that greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall 18% from 2025 levels by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040. Current national plans would reduce emissions by just 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035.

The report projected global warming of 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, or 2.6°C if countries fully implement existing climate commitments. Both estimates are higher than last year's projections, reflecting the United States' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised assessments of historical emissions.

As countries prepare for the next round of climate talks in Turkey, COP31, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said it is crucial not to give up on efforts to curb emissions that are causing floods, fires and other natural disasters.

"Exceeding the target does not mean giving up. We can still keep this increase as small and short as possible – and get temperatures back to below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century," he said.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to try to keep the average temperature increase well below 2 degrees and preferably 1.5°C.

As limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is no longer considered possible, UNEP said its new “lowest possible” overshoot scenario offers about a 50% chance that temperatures could return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

The report also indicated that the climate plans presented since last year practically did not change projections of future warming and that the return to the 1.5°C target would depend on large-scale carbon removal, the feasibility of which is uncertain.