The Covid-19 pandemic has proven that the world is not as well prepared for health crises as it may seem. Now, in a report published in the prestigious scientific journal "The Lancet", an international team of experts has presented a comprehensive analysis of the 17 greatest health threats that humanity may face in this century.
The authors of the report emphasize that although the scale of the threats is huge, we still have a chance to reduce them - provided we take decisive action now. The decisions made by today's leaders will have a direct impact on the health and well-being of future generations.
Two threats with the potential for human extinction
Among all the threats analyzed, two were considered particularly dangerous - they have the potential to lead to the extinction of humanity before the end of the 21st century. It is about the malicious use of artificial intelligence, including the creation of new biological weapons with its help, and a nuclear conflict leading to global famine.
Experts point out that although the probability of these scenarios occurring is relatively low, their consequences would be catastrophic. Other threats with the potential for human extinction, such as an asteroid impact or a supervolcano eruption, were excluded from the analysis due to their very low probability of occurrence this century.
15 more threats – billions of years of healthy life lost
In addition to the two most serious dangers, scientists have identified 15 other catastrophic threats, each of which could lead to the loss of over a billion years of healthy life - DALYs (DALYs are an important criterion in health policy used to determine the health of society, which allows determining how specific diseases affect life expectancy - editor's note) - in the world by 2100. For comparison, one billion DALYs is the equivalent of two Covid-19 pandemics.
The list includes: air pollution, antibiotic resistance, child malnutrition, climate change, the breakdown of international health financing, armed conflicts, excessive alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low levels of education, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, tobacco smoking, and unhealthy aging populations.
Obesity – the biggest single health problem
Of all the threats analyzed, obesity (with its causes, such as high BMI, poor diet and lack of physical activity) may have the greatest impact on the health of the global population. Experts estimate that the difference between the best and worst-case scenarios in this regard is as much as 23.1 billion years of healthy life lost - the equivalent of 46 years of the Covid-19 pandemic.
This was followed by low levels of education and income inequality. Higher levels of education not only improve individual health, but also slow population growth, which translates into less burden on health systems.
The scale of the challenges
According to researchers' forecasts, the total global burden of diseases and injuries in the years 2025–2100 may amount to as much as 246 billion DALYs - it is as if the world had experienced 500 Covid-19 pandemics. However, it is worth remembering that many threats overlap, so these values cannot be summed directly.
Experts emphasize that these threats are strongly interconnected and require a comprehensive, long-term approach. Solutions must go beyond fighting individual problems - international cooperation and systemic actions are necessary.
Key recommendations – how to prepare for the future?
Scientists made three main recommendations for governments and the international community: building and financing threat-ready health systems, increasing investment in breakthrough innovations in health, climate and technology, and creating a global monitoring system for 21st century health threats that will constantly update risk assessments.
Experts emphasize that only broad, coordinated actions can effectively protect the health and life of future generations.
