
AI-generated summary
Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the presidency is going among the electorate of Minas Gerais. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro in their last campaign acts, on October 3, 2026. — Photo: Brian Snyder and Alexandre Meneghini/Reuters
Datafolha research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the presidency is going among the electorate of Minas Gerais. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) appears ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
Stimulated search - Valid votes
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 45%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 39%
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 5%
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 5%
Renan Santos (Mission): 4%
Samara Martins (UP): 1%
Romeu Zema (New): 1%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Clariana Barão (DC): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
2,003 voters aged 16 or over were interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The research was contracted by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo and registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-07919/2026.
Total votes
See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters. Below, the stimulated poll, in which the names of the candidates are shown to voters:
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 42% (was 39% on October 1st)
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT): 36% (was 38%)
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 4% (was 5%)
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 4% (was 4%)
Renan Santos (Mission): 4% (was 4%)
Samara Martins (UP): 1% (was 1%)
Romeu Zema (New): 1% (was 4%)
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% (was 0%)
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% (was 0%)
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Clariana Barão (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Blank/null/none: 3% (was 5%)
Undecided: 4% (was 3%)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro will maintain an advantage over Lula in Minas Gerais in the 1st round
Likely · Within days
No candidate will reach 50% of the valid votes in Minas Gerais, leading to a 2nd round
Likely · Within days

The University of Lisbon will receive 78,833 Brazilian voters on Sunday (4), making it the largest voting location outside Brazil. The number exceeds that of Boston, second place, by 25 thousand, and reflects the 74% increase in registered voters in Lisbon since 2022. Ambassador Alessandro Candeas explains that the community in Portugal remains more connected to Brazil, while the consulates in New York, Boston and Miami, although larger in terms of population served, have lower electoral engagement. Voting will take place in three university buildings using QR Codes and support staff to avoid queues like in 2022, when waiting times reached five hours. Militants of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro adopt different strategies, with PT members organizing demonstrations in Rossio and Bolsonaro supporters acting through videos and online events. The consulate estimates that between 700,000 and 1 million Brazilians live in Portugal, far beyond the 574,195 registered by INE.

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ended the campaign for the first round of the presidential elections with a motorcade in the west zone of Rio de Janeiro, ending at Praça da Fé in Bangu, where the Catholic church closed its doors due to the noise of the political event with jingles and fireworks. The senator did not speak to the press and was accompanied by allies such as Douglas Ruas, PL candidate for governor of Rio. During the 13 km route between Campo Grande and Bangu, there were verbal confrontations with supporters of the PT candidate Adilson Pires, who called Flávio a 'thief', while Bolsonaro supporters responded to the provocations without physical aggression. Ruas said he hoped to win the state dispute against Eduardo Paes and criticized Lula, calling him an 'expired product', after the TSE annulled Anthony Garotinho's votes.

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