Eduardo Gomes (PL); Gaguim (UNION); Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) and Eli Borges (Republicans) — Photo: Waldemir Barreto/Agência Senado; Reproduction/Chamber of Deputies — Photo: Arte/g1
Quaest research released this Wednesday (23) shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Tocantins. The survey was commissioned by TV Anhanguera.
In 2026, two senators will be elected in each state and in the Federal District (DF), to renew 54 of the 81 seats. Therefore, each voter must vote for two different candidates. You cannot choose the same name twice.
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In Quaest's spontaneous survey — in which the names are not shown to voters interviewed — 69% are undecided (it was 86% on August 25), because they were unable to name a candidate.
In the stimulated survey, the list of candidates is shown, and each interviewee needs to answer twice for who they intend to vote for: for the first vacancy and, then, for the second vacancy.
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The results of the survey for the Senate consider the mentions for the first and second vacancies in a total that adds up to 100% of voting intentions and maintains the proportion between candidates, blanks/nulls and undecided candidates. See the numbers below:
Combination - total votes
Eduardo Gomes (PL): 18% (was 14% on August 25)
Gaguim (União): 16% (was 13%)
Alexandre Guimarães (MDB): 11% (was 8%)
Eli Borges (Republicans): 8% (was 4%)
Paulo Mourão (PT): 7% (was 9%)
Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos): 6% (was 5%)
Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos): 6% (was 6%)
Hélio Rodrigues Bolsonaro (Democrat): 1% (was 2%)
Professor Osvaldo (PSOL): 1% (was 2%)
Nilton Santos (New): 1% (was 1%)
Fábio Ribeiro (Rede): 0% (was 1%)
Apostle Flávio Braga (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Osvany Luz (Democrats): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (10%)
Undecided: 16% (was 24%)
Now, see the results that only consider the answers for the first wave and then for the second.
First wave
Eduardo Gomes (PL): 20% (was 16%)
Gaguim (União): 19% (was 14%)
Paulo Mourão (PT): 9% (was 12%)
Alexandre Guimãraes (MDB): 13% (was 10%)
Eli Borges (Republicans): 8% (was 5%)
Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos): 6% (was 7%)
Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos): 6% (was 7%)
Hélio Rodrigues Bolsonaro (Democrat): 0% (was 1%)
Professor Osvaldo (PSOL): 0% (was 1%)
Nilton Santos (New): 2% (was 1%)
Fábio Ribeiro (Rede): 0% (was 1%)
Apostle Flávio Braga (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Osvany Luz (Democrats): 0% (was 0%)
White/null/will not vote: 7% (was 8%)
Undecided: 10% (was 17%)
Second wave
Eduardo Gomes (PL): 16% (was 12%)
Gaguim (União): 14% (was 12%)
Alexandre Guimarães (MDB): 9% (was 6%)
Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos): 6% (was 5%)
Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos): 6% (was 4%)
Eli Borges (Republicans): 8% (was 4%)
Paulo Mourão (PT): 5% (was 6%)
Hélio Rodrigues Bolsonaro (Democrat): 1% (was 2%)
Professor Osvaldo (PSOL): 1% (was 2%)
Nilton Santos (New): 1% (was 1%)
Fábio Ribeiro (Rede): 1% (was 1%)
Apostle Flávio Braga (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Osvany Luz (Democrats): 0% (was 0%)
White/null/will not vote: 11% (was 13%)
Undecided: 21% (was 31%)
For 69% (it was 47% on August 25) of voters interviewed in the survey, the choice of candidate is definitive. Another 31% (was 52%) say they can still change their vote until the elections on October 4th.
Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and over between the 19th and 22nd of September. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The TSE registration number is TO-00781/2026 and BR-00781/2026.
Spontaneous survey numbers
Below, see the complete data from the spontaneous survey.
Alexandre Guimarães (MDB): 6% (was 4% on August 25)
Eduardo Gomes (PL): 8% (was 4%)
Gaguim (União): 5% (was 2%)
Eli Borges (Republican): 4% (was 1%)
Vanderlei Luxembrugo (Podemos): 2% (was 1%)
Paulo Mourão (PT): 2% (was 0%)
Others: 0% (was 0%)
White/null/will not vote: 3% (was 1%)
Undecided 69% (was 86%)
Rejection of candidates
Quaest also asked voters about each of the candidates: if they know them and would vote, if they don't know them or if they know them and wouldn't vote. The most rejected candidates (highest rates of "know and wouldn't vote") are Gaguim (União) 37% and Paulo Mourão (PT) 32%.
Eduardo Gomes (PL):
Knows and would vote: 41% (was 33%)
Don't know: 38% (was 49%)
Knows and would not vote: 21% (was 18%)
Gaguim (Union):
Knows and would vote: 40% (was 33%)
Don't know: 23% (was 27%)
Knows and would not vote: 37% (was 40%)
Alexandre Guimãraes (MDB)
Knows and would vote: 30% (was 23%)
Don't know: 52% (was 61%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 18% (was 16%)
Paulo Mourão (PT)
Knows and would vote: 22% (was 22%)
Don't know: 46% (was 46%)
Knows and would not vote: 32% (was 32%)
Ronaldo Dimas (Podemos):
Knows and would vote: 24% (was 21%)
Don't know: 52% (was 56%)
Knows and would not vote: 24% (was 23%)
Vanderlei Luxemburgo (Podemos):
Knows and would vote: 21% (was 20%)
Don't know: 49% (was 54%)
Knows and would not vote: 30% (was 26%)
Eli Borges (Republicans):
Know and would vote: 22% (13%)
Don't know: 60% (was 69%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 18% (was 18%)
Hélio Rodrigues Bolsonaro (Democrat):
Knows and would vote: 8% (was 7%)
Don't know: 80% (was 80%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 12% (was 13%)
Professor Osvaldo (PSOL):
Knows and would vote: 2% (was 4%)
Don't know: 90% (was 89%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 8% (was 7%)
Nilton Santos (New):
Knows and would vote: 9% (was 3%)
Don't know: 80% (was 88%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 11% (was 9%)
Apostle Flávio Braga (DC):
Knows and would vote: 1% (was 1%)
Don't know: 90% (was 92%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 9% (was 7%)
Fábio Ribeiro (Network):
Knows and would vote: 3% (was 1%)
Don't know: 87% (was 93%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 10% (was 6%)
Osvany Luz (Democrat):
Knows and would vote: 2% (was 1%)
Don't know: 93% (was 93%)
Knows and wouldn't vote: 5% (was 6%)
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