Quaest survey shows Eduardo Riedel with 67% of valid votes and possible victory in the first round in Mato Grosso do Sul

Eduardo Riedel, Fábio Trad and Delcídio Amaral. — Photo: Reproduction

The Quaest survey released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Mato Grosso do Sul is going. On the eve of the election, Eduardo Riedel (PP) leads alone, with 67% of valid votes and could win in the first round.

The survey was commissioned by TV Morena. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

Valid votes

Eduardo Riedel (PP): 67%

Fábio Trad (PT): 23%

Delcídio Amaral (PRD): 4%

João Henrique Catan (NEW): 4%

Jeferson Bezerra (Act): 1%

Lucien Rezende (PSOL): 1%

Daniel Lemes (PCO): 0%

Economist Renato Gomes (DC): 0%

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What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions.

To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote

The survey was commissioned by TV Morena and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus.

The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number MS-04157/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.

Eduardo Riedel (PP): 56% (was 51% on September 25)

Fábio Trad (PT): 19% (was 12%)

Delcídio Amaral (PRD): 4% (was 6%)

João Henrique Catan (NEW): 3% (was 3%)

Jeferson Bezerra (Act): 1% (was 2%)

Lucien Rezende (PSOL): 1% (was 1%)

Economist Renato Gomes (DC): 1% (was 1%)

Daniel Lemes (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Undecided: 7% (was 15%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 8% (was 9%)

Spontaneous search

Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.

These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Eduardo Riedel (PP): 33% (was 34% on September 25)

Fábio Trad (PT): 8% (was 5%)

João Henrique Catan (NEW): 2% (was 2%)

Delcídio Amaral (PRD): 1% (was 0%)

Jeferson Bezerra (Act): 0% (was 0%)

Lucien Rezende (PSOL): 0% (was 0%)

Economist Renato Gomes (DC): 0% (was 0%)

Daniel Lemes (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Undecided: 52% (was 55%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 4% (was 4%)

Vote decision

Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 79% say the decision is final. Another 20% say they can still change their mind.

Choice is final: 79% (was 68%)

May change: 20% (was 32%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)

Interest in the election

Very interested: 39% (was 34%)

Not very interested: 40% (was 42%)

Not interested at all: 20% (was 23%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)

2nd round scenarios

Quaest also simulated 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:

Eduardo Riedel (PP) x Fábio Trad (PT)

Eduardo Riedel (PP): 56% (was 63%)

Fábio Trad (PT): 24% (was 20%)

Undecided: 10% (was 8%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 10% (was 9%)

Eduardo Riedel (PP) x Delcídio Amaral (PRD)

Eduardo Riedel (PP): 62% (was 63%)

Delcídio Amaral (PRD): 15% (was 19%)

Undecided: 12% (was 8%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 11% (was 10%)

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