Quaest survey shows quadruple tie for the Senate in São Paulo

Candidates for the Senate for São Paulo Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB) — Photo: Reproduction/TV Globo

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in São Paulo. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates.

Guilherme Derrite (PP), André do Prado (PL), Marina SIlva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB) are technically in a quadruple draw.

The survey was commissioned by Globo and interviewed 3,702 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number SP-04726/2026.

First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 68% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).

Stimulated search - valid votes

In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.

The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.

Guilherme Derrite (PP) - 25%

André do Prado (PL) - 23%

Marina Silva (Network) - 22%

Simone Tebet (PSB) - 22%

Guto Schiavetto (Mission) - 2%

Dr. Eliana Ferreira (PSTU) - 1%

Ednelson Cesaretti (PCO) - 1%

Geraldo Rufino (Podemos) - 1%

Soninha Francine (Citizenship) -

Maíra de Souza (UP) - 1%

Marcio Alves (UP) - 1%

Soninha Francine (Citizenship) - 1%

Petter Maahs (PCB) - 0%

Weller Gonçalves (PSTU) - 0%

Wiiliam Teixeira (Act) - 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Stimulated poll - total votes

See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.

Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)

Guilherme Derrite (PP) - 20% (it was 18% on September 29)

André do Prado (PL) - 18% (was 12%)

Marina Silva (Rede) - 17% (was 15%)

Simone Tebet (PSB) - 17% (was 15%)

Geraldo Rufino (Podemos) - 1% (was 1%)

Soninha Francine (Citizenship) - 1% (was 1%)

Wiiliam Teixeira (Agir) - 1% (was 0%)

Guto Schiavetto (Mission) - 1% (was 1%)

Maíra de Souza (UP) - 1% (was 1%)

Marcio Alves (UP) - 1% (was 1%)

Dr. Eliana Ferreira (PSTU) - 1% (was 1%)

Salles (New) - 0%

Weller Gonçalves (PSTU) - 0% (was 0%)

Ednelson Cesaretti (PCO) - 0% (was 0%)

Undecided - 6% (was 15%)

White/Null/Will not vote - 15% (was 16%)