Datafolha shows technical tie between four candidates for the Senate in São Paulo

A Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3), the day before the election, shows that the composition of the Senate in São Paulo remains undefined, with four candidates in a technical tie — the same result as the institute's last three surveys.

Considering the valid votes, Guilherme Derrite (PP) and André do Prado (PL) are the candidates who appear numerically ahead, with 22% of voting intentions, each. Marina Silva (Rede) has 21%, and Simone Tebet (PSB), 20%. The margin of error is two percentage points.

Marina and Simone are on Fernando Haddad's (PT) ticket and support the re-election of President Lula (PT). André do Prado and Derrite are running on the ticket of Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and are defending the election of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).

In the previous survey, published last Thursday (1st) and which considered the total votes, Marina scored 16%, Simone and André had 15% each, and Derrite, 14%.

Datafolha interviewed 2,520 people on October 2 and 3 for the survey released this Saturday. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the TSE under numbers SP-09337/2026 and BR-07025/2026.

At a lower level, also considering valid votes, appear Geraldo Rufino (Pode), with 3%, Ricardo Salles (Novo), Soninha Francine (Cidadania), Guto Schiavetto (Missão), Marcio Alves (UP), Maíra de Souza (UP) and Dr. Eliana Ferreira (PSTU), with 2% each, and William Teixeira (Agir), with 1%. The names of Petter Maahs (PCB), Weller Gonçalves (PSTU) and Ednelson Cesaretti (PCO) did not reach 1%.

Salles announced last Monday (28) that he withdrew his candidacy. However, according to Datafolha, the announcement was made after the research was registered with the TSE. Therefore, his name was kept.

In the spontaneous survey, the one in which the interviewee is asked who their candidates are without presenting a list, the percentage of undecided voters fell in this survey.

In the Datafolha survey released last Thursday, 53% of respondents responded that they had not yet made up their mind. The percentage of undecided people has now reached 47%.

In the spontaneous, which also has a technical draw scenario, Derrite appears numerically ahead, with 10% of voting intentions. Marina and Simone have 9% each; and André do Prado, 7%.