Quaest for the Senate in Paraná, valid votes: Filipe Barros, 25%, Alexandre Curi, 21%; Deltan Dallagnol, 21%; and Gleisi, 15% — Photo: Reproduction
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Paraná. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Filipe Barros (PL) leads the dispute, with 25% of valid votes.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 60% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Filipe Barros (PL): 25%
Alexandre Curi (Republicans): 21%
Deltan Dallagnol (New): 21%
Gleisi (PT): 15%
Dr. Rosinha (PT): 10%
Cristina Graeml (PSD): 7%
Karen Guerreiro (Mission): 1%
Joaquim from MLB (Popular Unit): 0%
Marcelo Marcelino (PCO): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Stimulated Search - Total Votes
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Filipe Barros (PL): 17% (it was 11% on September 24);
Deltan Dallagnol (New): 15% (was 11% on September 24);
Alexandre Curi (Republicans): 15% (it was 14% on September 24);
Gleisi (PT): 11% (it was 10% on September 24);
Dr. Rosinha (PT): 7% (it was 5% on September 24);
Cristina Graeml (PSD): 5% (it was 5% on September 24);
Marcelo Marcelino (PCO): 1% (was 1% on September 24);
Karen Guerreiro (Mission): 1% (was 1% on September 24);
Joaquim from MLB (Popular Unit): 0% (was 0% on September 24);
Undecided: 18% (was 29% on September 24);
White/null/will not vote: 10% (it was 13% on September 24).
Vote for 1st place
Deltan Dallagnol (NEW): 20%
Alexandre Curi (Republicans): 18%
Filipe Barros (PL): 16%
Gleisi (PT): 16%
Cristina Graeml (PSD): 5%
Dr. Rosinha (PT): 4%
Marcelo Marcelino (PCO): 1%
Karen Guerreiro (Mission): 1%
Joaquim from MLB (Popular Unit): 0%
Undecided: 11%
Blank/null/will not vote: 8%
Vote for 2nd place
Filipe Barros (PL): 18%
Alexandre Curi (Republicans): 11%
Deltan Dallagnol (NEW): 10%
Dr. Rosinha (PT): 10%
Cristina Graeml (PSD): 6%
Gleisi (PT): 6%
Karen Guerreiro (Mission): 2%
Marcelo Marcelino (PCO): 1%
Joaquim from MLB (Popular Unit): 0%
Undecided: 24%
Blank/null/will not vote: 12%
The research carried out by Quaest considers the current scenario of the Senate race. Marcelo Marcelino (PCO), and Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), continue running for the Senate until there is a definitive decision from the Electoral Court.
Vote decision
For 30%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 69% say the decision is final.
Choice is definitive: 69% (was 58%)
May change: 30% (was 42%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
Spontaneous search
Deltan Dallagnol (New): 10% (was 6% on September 24);
Filipe Barros (PL): 9% (it was 3% on September 24);
Alexandre Curi (Republicans): 7% (was 4% on September 24);
Gleisi (PT): 5% (it was 4% on September 24);
Dr Rosinha (PT): 3% (it was 2% on September 24);
Cristina Graeml (PSD): 2% (it was 2% on September 24);
Marcelo Marcelino (PCO): 1% (was 0% on September 24);
Karen Guerreiro (Mission): 0% (was 0% on September 24);
Joaquim from MLB (Popular Unit): 0% (was 0% on September 24);
Others: 1% (was 0% on September 24);
Undecided: 60% (it was 76% on September 24);
Blank/null/will not vote: 2% (it was 3% on September 24);
The survey was commissioned by RPC, a TV Globo affiliate in Paraná, and interviewed 2,005 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number PR-05119/2026.
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