
AI-generated summary
The Quaest survey was released on the eve of the 1st round of state elections in Santa Catarina, with Jorginho Mello seeking re-election for the PL. The survey interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over between October 2 and 3, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points and a confidence level of 95%.
Jorginho Mello, João Rodrigues and Gelson Merísio, candidates for the government of Santa Catarina — Photo: Reproduction/Social networks
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Santa Catarina is going. Considering the valid votes, the numbers indicate the re-election of Jorginho Mello (PL), who totals 71%.
Valid votes
Jorginho Mello (PL): 71%
João Rodrigues (PSD): 14%
Gelson Merísio (PSB): 12%
Marcelo Brigadeiro (Mission): 2%
Professor Marcus Sodré (PSTU): 1%
Bruno Pedreiro from PCO (PCO): 0%
Laís Chaud (Popular Unit): 0%
Ralf Zimmer (PRD): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
The survey was commissioned by the NSC and interviewed 1800 voters aged 16 and over on October 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number SC-07346/2026.
Total votes
See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.
Jorginho Mello (PL): 57% (was 54% on September 24)
João Rodrigues (PSD): 12% (was 13%)
Gelson Merísio (PSB): 9% (was 10%)
Professor Marcus Sodré (PSTU): 1% (was 1%)
Ralf Zimmer (PRD): 1% (was 0%)
Marcelo Brigadeiro (Mission): 1% (was 1%)
Bruno Pedreiro from PCO (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Laís Chaud (Popular Unity): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 14% (was 15%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 5%)
Spontaneous search
Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.
These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Jorginho Mello (PL): 42% (was 34% on September 24)
João Rodrigues (PSD): 7% (was 7%)
Gelson Merísio (PSB): 7% (was 7%)
Ralf Zimmer (PRD): 0% (was 0%)
Marcelo Brigadeiro (Mission): 0% (was 0%)
Laís Chaud (Popular Unit): 0% (was 0%)
Bruno Pedreiro from PCO (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Professor Marcus Sodré (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Others: 1% (was 1%)
Undecided: 40% (was 49%)
White/null/will not vote: 3% (was 2%)
Vote decision
Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 79% say the decision is final. Another 21% say they can still change their mind.
Choice is final: 79% (was 67%)
Could change: 21% (was 33%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 0% (they were 0%)
Interest in the election
Very interested: 46% (was 40%)
Not very interested: 37% (was 41%)
Not interested at all: 16% (was 19%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
2nd round scenarios
Quaest also simulated 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:
Jorginho Mello (PL) x João Rodrigues (PSD)
Jorginho Mello (PL): 59% (was 58%)
João Rodrigues (PSD): 21% (was 23%)
Undecided: 13% (was 9%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 7% (was 10%)
Jorginho Mello (PL) x Gelson Merisio (PSB)
Jorginho Mello (PL): 63% (was 66%)
Gelson Merísio (PSB): 15% (was 15%)
Undecided: 13% (was 8%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (was 11%)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Jorginho Mello will win the election in the 1st round
Very likely · Within days
There will be a second round between Jorginho Mello and João Rodrigues or Gelson Merísio
Possible · Within weeks

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