Rui Costa (PT), Jaques Wagner (PT), Angelo Coronel (Republicans) and João Roma (PL) — Photo: Photo: Reproduction/Disclosure; Alessandro Dantas/Senate; Disclosure/Senate; Disclosure
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in Bahia. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates. Rui Costa (PT) and Jaques Wagner (PT) lead with 33% and 30%, respectively.
Spontaneous search
First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 39% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).
The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Stimulated search - valid votes
In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.
The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.
Rui Costa (PT): 33%
Jaques Wagner (PT): 30%
Angelo Coronel (Republicans): 18%
João Roma (PL): 17%
Professor Delliana Ricelli (Psol): 1%
Marcelo Carvalho (Psol): 1%
Marcelo Santatana (DC): 0%
Marcelo Millet (PCO): 0%
Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza): 0%
Gregorio Gould (UP): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
Stimulated poll - total votes:
See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.
Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)
Rui Costa (PT): 26% (was 23% on September 24)
Jaques Wagner (PT): 24% (was 17%)
Angelo Coronel (Republicans): 14% (was 9%)
João Roma (PL): 13% (was 11%)
Professor Delliana Ricelli (Psol): 1% (was 2%)
Marcelo Carvalho (Psol): 1% (was 1%)
Marcelo Santatana (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Marcelo Millet (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza): 0% (was 1%)
Gregorio Gould (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 13% (was 16%)
Undecided: 8% (was 19%)
Vote for 1st place
Rui Costa (PT): 33% (was 32% on September 24)
Jaques Wagner (PT): 18% (was 15%)
João Roma (PL): 16% (was 16%)
Angelo Coronel (Republicans): 12% (was 8%)
Professor Delliana Ricelli (Psol): 1% (was 1%)
Marcelo Carvalho (Psol): 1% (was 0%)
Marcelo Santatana (DC): 0% (was 0%)
Marcelo Millet (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza): 0% (was 0%)
Gregorio Gould (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 12% (was 13%)
Undecided: 7% (was 15%)
Vote for 2nd place
Jaques Wagner (PT): 29% (was 20% on September 24)
Rui Costa (PT): 20% (was 14%)
Angelo Coronel (Republicans): 16% (was 9%)
João Roma (PL): 10% (was 8%)
Professor Delliana Ricelli (Psol): 1% (was 2%)
Marcelo Carvalho (Psol): 1% (was 1%)
Marcelo Santatana (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Marcelo Millet (PCO): 0% (was 1%)
Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza): 0% (was 1%)
Gregorio Gould (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 15% (was 20%)
Undecided: 8% (was 23%)
Vote decision
For 15%, the vote choice for the Senate could still change. Another 84% say the decision is final.
Choice is final: 84% (it was 73% on September 24)
May change: 15% (was 26%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)
Spontaneous search
Rui Costa (PT): 18% (it was 8% on September 24)
Jaques Wagner (PT): 17% (was 7%)
Angelo Coronel (Republicans): 11% (was 4%)
João Roma (PL): 10% (was 4%)
Marcelo Carvalho (Rede): 1% (was 0%)
Others: 0% (was 0%)
White/null/will not vote: 4% (was 6%)
Undecided: 39% (was 71%)
The survey was commissioned by TV Bahia and interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BA-02224/2026.
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