Quaest survey shows technical tie between Elmano and Ciro in Ceará

Elmano and Ciro — Photo: Thiago Gadelha/ SVM

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Ceará is going. Candidate Elmano de Freitas (PT) has 50% of the valid votes, while candidate Ciro Gomes (PSDB) has 49%. The two are technically tied within the margin of error, which is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Valid votes

Elmano de Freitas (PT): 50%

Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 49%

Delegate Huggo (Mission): 1%

Danilo Soares (Democrat): 0

Ieri Braga (PCO): 0

Serley Leal (UP): 0

Vera Lúcia (New): 0

Zé Batista (PSTU): 0

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.

The survey was commissioned by TV Verdes Mares and interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number CE-04790/2026.

Total votes

See now the result with the total votes, which includes blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.

Elmano de Freitas (PT): 42% (it was 41% on September 23)

Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 41% (was 43%)

Delegate Huggo (Mission): 1% (was 1%)

Danilo Soares (Democrat): 0 (was 0)

Ieri Braga (PCO): 0 (was 0)

Serley Leal (UP): 0 (was 0)

Vera Lúcia (New): 0 (was 0)

Zé Batista (PSTU): 0 (was 0)

Undecided: 10% (was 8%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 6% (was 6%)

Spontaneous search

Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.

These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Elmano de Freitas (PT): 32% (was 25% on September 23)

Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 31% (was 28%)

Delegate Huggo (Mission): 1% (was 0)

Danilo Soares (Democrat): 0

Ieri Braga (PCO): 0

Serley Leal (UP): 0

Vera Lúcia (New): 0

Zé Batista (PSTU): 0

Others: 1% (was 0)

Undecided: 29% (was 45%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 6% (was 2%)

Vote decision

Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 83% say the decision is final. Another 16% say they can still change their mind.

Choice is final: 83% (it was 75% on September 23)

Could change: 16% (was 24%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)

Interest in the election

Not very interested: 40% (was 40% on September 23)

Very interested: 39% (was 38%)

Not interested at all: 20% (was 21%)

Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)

2nd round scenarios

Quaest also simulated 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:

Ciro Gomes (PSDB): 49% (it was 45% on September 23)

Elmano de Freitas (PT): 48% (was 42%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 2% (was 6%)

Undecided: 1% (was 7%)

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