
AI-generated summary
The Quaest survey was released on the eve of the 1st round of state elections in Bahia, with the aim of measuring voters' voting intentions. The survey was commissioned by TV Bahia and registered with the Electoral Court under number BA-02224/2026.
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil) — Photo: Reproduction / TV Bahia
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Bahia is going. There is a technical tie between Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (União Brasil).
Valid votes
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT): 52%
ACM Neto (União Brasil): 48%
Ariel Capistrano (DC): 0
Aroldo Felix (UP): 0
Maria Bona (PCO): 0
Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL): 0
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank and invalid votes and abstentions. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
The survey was commissioned by TV Bahia and interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number BA-02224/2026.
Total votes
See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT): 46% (it was 40% on September 24)
ACM Neto (União Brasil): 42% (was 42%)
Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL): 1% (was 0)
Aroldo Felix (UP): 0 (was 0)
Maria Bona (PCO): 0 (was 1%)
Ariel Capistrano (DC): 0 (was 0)
Undecided: 5% (was 9%)
White/null/will not vote: 6% (was 8%)
Spontaneous search
Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.
These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT): 36% (it was 27% on September 24)
ACM Neto (União Brasil): 35% (was 29%)
Others: 1% (was 1%)
Undecided: 25% (was 40%)
White/null/will not vote: 3% (was 3%)
Vote decision
Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 87% say the decision is final. Another 12% say they can still change their mind.
Choice is final: 87% (it was 79% on September 24)
May change: 12% (was 20%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)
Interest in the election
Very interested: 45% (was 37%)
Not very interested: 35% (was 39%)
Not interested at all: 19% (was 23%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 1%)
2nd round scenarios
Quaest also simulated 2nd round scenarios. See the numbers:
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) x ACM Neto (União Brasil)
Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT): 47% (it was 43% on September 24)
ACM Neto (União Brasil): 43% (was 45%)
Undecided: 5% (was 7%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 5% (was 5%)
Watch videos from g1 and TV Bahia 💻
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The 1st round of the elections for governor of Bahia will have a tight result, possibly requiring a 2nd round between Jerônimo Rodrigues and ACM Neto.
Likely · Within days

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