Quaest survey shows Michelle Bolsonaro leading Senate race in DF

Michelle Bolsonaro (PL); Leila do Volleyball (PDT); Bia Kicis (PL) and Erika Kokay (PT) are candidates for the Senate for the DF. — Photo: Reproduction

Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the Senate is going in the Federal District. This Sunday (4), each voter will have to vote for two candidates.

Spontaneous search

First, Quaest asked voters who they would vote for, without showing the list of candidates. This is a spontaneous survey, and 32% of respondents did not mention a name in their response. Therefore, they are considered undecided (at the end of the report, see data from the spontaneous survey).

The results of the spontaneous survey help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.

Stimulated search - valid votes

In the stimulated survey, the names and parties of the candidates are presented to the interviewees. Each voter chooses a name for the first vacancy in the Senate and another for the second.

The data below considers the votes valid. This calculation excludes blank and invalid votes and also undecided voters.

Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 31%

Leila do Volleyball (PDT): 27%

Bia Kicis (PL): 24%

Erika Kokay (PT): 17%

Sebastião Coelho (New): 1%

Ronaldo Fonseca (PSD): 0%

Professor Guilherme Amorim (UP): 0%

Zanata (PSTU): 0%

Guto Felício dos Santos (PSDB): 0%

Tiago (Act): 0%

Marley (Forward): 0%

David Horn (PCO): 0%

What are valid votes?

This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.

How does Quaest calculate valid votes?

Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.

Stimulated Search - Total Votes

See now the numbers of total votes, including blank and invalid votes and undecided votes.

Aggregate result (1st and 2nd wave)

Michelle Bolsonaro (PL): 25% (was 26%)

Leila do Vôlei (PDT): 22% (was 20%)

Bia Kicis (PL): 19% (was 18%)

Erika Kokay (PT): 15% (was 16%)

Sebastião Coelho (New): 2% (was 1%)

Tiago (Act): 0% (they were 0%)

Ronaldo Fonseca (PSD): 0% (was 1%)

Professor Guilherme Amorim (UP): 0% (was 1%)

Zanata (PSTU): 0% (was 1%)

Guto Felício dos Santos (PSDB): 0% (was 0%)

Marley (Avante): 0% (was 0%)

David Horn (PCO): 0% (was 0%)

Blank/null/will not vote: 9% (was 10%)

Undecided: 8% (was 6%)

The survey was commissioned by Globo and interviewed 2,652 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2% percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number DF-04089/2026.