Peter Alestig: Are the UN's climate negotiations working at all?

This year's climate meeting takes place in a historically tough situation. Several parallel crises strike the world – and the negotiations, just when they are most needed.

Crisis number one: extreme weather.

We don't notice it in Sweden, but large parts of the world are currently in a weather chaos. In Southeast Asia, smoke from catastrophic fires in Indonesia has swept over several countries. In the southwestern United States, extreme rainfall has caused flash floods that have destroyed infrastructure and swept away cars and homes. In South America, severe flooding has affected a number of countries, including Panama, Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia and El Salvador.

Behind the disasters is a common denominator: the climate phenomenon El Niño, which worsens extreme weather over large parts of the world. Experts have been warning for months that we are headed for one of the strongest El Niño events on record. Now it's here - exposing how ill-equipped our societies are for the climate we're entering.

Crisis number two: the energy crisis.

The high oil and diesel prices are already creating political shock waves. The main reason is the US and Israel's war against Iran. The full economic impact has not yet hit. High gas prices combined with an approaching winter is a risky combination for Europe. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure also contribute to pushing up diesel prices.

Crisis number three: the food crisis.

El Niño is expected to knock out large amounts of food production and throw an additional 49 million people into acute famine, according to the UN food program WFP. At the same time, food prices are pushed up by a lack of fertilizer as a result of the Iran war and by rising energy prices. The risk is that the food crisis in turn triggers more conflicts and riots.

Crisis number four: global cooperation.

The number of armed conflicts is the highest since World War II. The world's aid has been cut when countries divert resources to defence, among other things. Poor countries feel betrayed and rich countries turn on each other.

The need for global cooperation is greater than ever. The conditions are worse than in a very long time.

In the midst of this, world leaders are gathering in Turkey for the climate conference COP31. Host nations Turkey and Australia have dubbed the meeting an "Electrification COP". But it should rather be called a survival COP. For the climate negotiations - and for all people affected by the consequences of the climate crisis.

The meeting's major contentious issues show what is at stake.

Are the climate negotiations working at all?

More and more people are asking themselves the question, both inside and outside the negotiations. According to the UN environmental program UNEP, it is now impossible to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. More and more are demanding reforms. Sweden and the EU want to clean up the negotiations and return to the basics: to actually reduce emissions.

How are we going to get rid of the fossil?

For decades, progressive countries have been trying to reach an agreement to phase out fossil fuels. But oil countries like Saudi Arabia continue to block. The US, the world's largest oil producer, no longer even participates in the Paris Agreement climate cooperation after Trump's decision to leave the agreement.

Frustrated by the opposition of the fossil fuel nations, a group of more ambitious countries last year started a separate process in Brazil to push for the phase-out. There, progress can be made. But don't count on any sharp statements in the regular negotiations.

How should people be saved from the disasters?

Countries that have already been hit hard by the climate crisis are coming to Turkey with renewed anger and demands for compensation. Nepal, which was recently hit by a catastrophic flash flood, will be the first in history to receive compensation from a new UN fund for climate-related damage and losses.

Expect increased demands for money for that fund and for other climate funds that will help poor and vulnerable countries protect themselves against climate change.

So what is the bright spot?

Despite new fossil records and a missed 1.5 degree target, the situation is significantly better than when the Paris Agreement was concluded. At the time, the forecasts pointed towards 3–4 degrees of warming. Now the forecast is around 2.8 degrees, according to UNEP. An important explanation is the rapid development in renewable energy, which may not have eliminated the fossil but at least slowed its growth rate.

We are still heading for a disaster. But it is demonstrably possible to change course - if the countries of the world only want to.