Sharp rise in oil prices: Trump's Iran move shook the markets

Oil prices rose on expectations that tensions between the US and Iran may escalate again.

The barrel price of Brent oil increased by more than 5 percent as of 13.30 on Thursday, reaching over 105 dollars and reaching the highest level of the last two weeks.

US crude oil also rose above $92.5, compensating for the losses it suffered in the previous session.

INSTRUCTIONS TO PENTAGON ON ATTACK OPTIONS FOR IRAN

The rise in prices was influenced by the news that the Trump administration asked the Pentagon to prepare possible attack options against Iran before the midterm elections.

This development revealed a picture contrary to expectations that US President Donald Trump would avoid escalating tensions with Tehran before the midterm elections to be held in November.

IEA'S STOCK MOVE WAS NOT ENOUGH

Oil prices fell on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) decided to accelerate the release of oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies.

The decision was aimed at limiting the impact of high fuel prices and supply disruptions due to the Iran war.

However, the decline in prices was not permanent and oil started to rise again as geopolitical risks came to the fore again.

RISK INCREASED IN THE STRAIT OF HORmuz

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict entered its eighth month, risks to oil transportation in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have increased.

Before the war, approximately 20 percent of global oil and fuel shipments were carried out through this route.

Attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest level last week since the start of the Iran war.

While the increase in attacks occurred at a time when Gulf producers increased exports, shipping costs and the risk to ships and crews also increased.

ATTACK ON A TANKER: LOSS OF LIVES OCCURRED

The UK Maritime Trade Operations Agency reported that a tanker was hit by many bullets in the north of Qatar on Wednesday and there were casualties in the attack.

Following the attacks, traffic flow in the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest level in the last two months.

THE EFFECT OF STRATEGIC RESERVES MAY REMAIN LIMITED

ANZ Bank Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes said similar attacks in the past had led to a decline in shipments from the Persian Gulf.

Hynes stated that this time, Gulf producers may be taking the risk of damage to ships because alternative routes to deliver oil to international markets are limited.

Stating that the oil to be released by the IEA is expected to be part of the previously announced 400 million barrel plan, Hynes pointed out that this does not mean an additional withdrawal from strategic reserves.

Hynes also emphasized that sales from strategic stocks may increase supply for a short time, but will not create new production capacity.

US STOCKS DECREASED MORE THAN EXPECTED

Another factor that supported oil prices was stock data from the USA.

According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, crude oil stocks decreased by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ending October 2.

Market expectation was that stocks would decrease by 1.7 million barrels.

Distilled fuel stocks, including diesel and jet fuel, decreased by 42 thousand barrels to 105.14 million barrels.

This level remained significantly lower than in the same periods of the last five years.