Oil: the price of a barrel of Brent falls back below 90 dollars

Oil prices fell again on Tuesday, with Brent falling below $90 for the first time since August, against a backdrop of hopes in the Middle East, Donald Trump having spoken on Monday of a “positive momentum” towards an agreement to end the war with Iran.

If a resumption of strikes against Iran is “unlikely”, the United States remains “ready to intervene”, insisted the American president on Truth Social after his meeting with the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed ben Abdelrahmane al-Thani. He said his country, along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait “and others would prefer the status quo.”

“The likelihood of further military escalation has diminished” but “there is still little concrete evidence that a peace agreement is significantly closer,” says Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management. This is nevertheless enough to significantly lower oil prices while oil flows from the Gulf, in particular thanks to the routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, are “close to pre-war levels” specify ING analysts. After falling to $89.66, around 10:25 a.m., the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in January, stood at $90.48, down 2.26%.

Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in December, fell 2.08% to 85.04 dollars. In the status quo scenario, with “occasional tensions between the United States and Iran” but in “the absence of significant or prolonged disruptions”, ING analysts forecast an average of around $77 per barrel for 2027. Furthermore, the talks in Abu Dhabi between Ukraine and Russia under American mediation “reinforce the bearish convictions” of the energy market, specifies John Evans, analyst at PVM.