Markets expect interest rate hike from Fed

Markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this evening. The 25 basis point increase expectation rate is currently above 92% on the Chicago Stock Exchange's data page showing the market expectation on the subject... However, the real fear in the markets is that this interest rate increase will probably not be limited to one time...

What do surveys and economists say?

Two financial media companies, Reuters and CNBC, published their surveys on the subject. 86% of economists participating in CNBC's survey expect at least one more interest rate increase in the year after the possible interest rate increase in September. Approximately 1 in 3 stated that they expected 3 interest rate increases in 1 year.

In the Reuters survey, 37 out of 70 economists expect at least one more interest rate increase until March 2027, in addition to the September increase. Bank of America analyst Stephen Juneau said he expects 3 interest rate increases for 2026. Jonathan Millar from Barclays expects a total of 2 interest rate increases this year.

Dot-plot will also be announced

Dot-plot projections will also be announced in today's fed decision. The interest rate expectations of 19 members for the end of 2026 and 2027 will be followed with interest. In particular, the fact that the market does not attribute the high inflation rate solely to oil prices also highlights the expectations for 2027. In the June dot-plot, the median interest rate expectation for the end of 2026 was 3.8%. It is certain that this rate will be much higher today.

In the final charts, 8 of 18 members (Warsh did not express an opinion) stated that they did not expect an interest rate increase in 2026. This number is expected to decrease significantly today.