Political scientist Carlo Masala warns of a Russian shadow war and calls for countermeasures

Political scientist Carlo Masala warns of a further escalation of the conflict between Russia and the West. Russia is already waging a war in secret, said the Professor of International Politics at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich in an interview with “Zeit”.

According to the political scientist, the West must make it clear to Russia that attacks against European states have consequences. Offensive means could also be used for this. "You could also call together the secret services of friendly countries to send a joint signal to Moscow: We too can wage a hybrid war," Masala told the newspaper.

Masala preferred to speak of a "shadow war" with regard to Russian activities against Western states. Russia is already waging a war against the West, but in secret. This included espionage, disinformation and attempts at sabotage. The aim is to unsettle Western states and weaken support for Ukraine.

When asked whether the West should then attack cargo planes at a Russian airport, for example, Masala replied with a different scenario. "I'm thinking more of a scenario like the one implemented by Estonia in 2008. Suddenly cash can no longer be withdrawn in Moscow and St. Petersburg."

By this the political scientist means a possible cyber attack. When asked whether it could be a hacker attack, he said: "For example." In his view, what is crucial is that the Russian leadership must expect consequences. If there is no reaction, Russian actions will become “increasingly risky.”

However, Masala currently believes that an immediate Russian attack on NATO territory is unlikely. The risk of a Russian seizure of land, for example in the Baltics, is “currently very low”. If such a step were taken, Moscow would have to expect a unified response from NATO.

At the same time, Masala warned against underestimating the danger. Russia is already escalating on other levels. The political scientist spoke of a "horizontal escalation": Moscow is primarily attacking those states that support Ukraine militarily and financially.

If the hybrid attacks continue to increase and Russia does not make progress on the Ukrainian front, a further level of escalation could follow. Masala does not rule out a so-called false flag attack or a limited military attack. However, such a development cannot be predicted with certainty.

According to Masala, another Russian strategy could be aimed at changing the political balance of power in Europe. Moscow could try to strengthen parties and politicians who reject further support for Ukraine. This would be a more favorable starting position for Russia.

According to Masala's assessment, Germany also needs to further expand its support for Ukraine. Because of its financial possibilities, Germany is a central force in European aid to Ukraine. According to him, an end or a significant reduction in support could have serious consequences for Ukraine.