Make your bets. Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, is expected on stage at TOKEN2049 in Singapore. Before getting on, he relayed a flattering comparison between the revenues of his platform and those of Hyperliquid.
The market already sees this as a clue to the POLY token. We therefore compared these figures with data from DefiLlama. They hold, but they don't say everything.
Coplan, Hyperliquid and TOKEN2049: what the message says
Sunday October 4, around 8 p.m. in Paris, Shayne Coplan took up a message from Matthew Modabber on X. The latter is marketing director of Polymarket. Coplan adds that he might have “a little something to say” to TOKEN2049. He arranges to meet in Singapore. The event takes place on October 7 and 8, according to its program.
Modabber's post compares one weekend's revenue: $9.9 million for Polymarket, $2.64 million for Hyperliquid. The attached graph covers September 26 and 27. Modabber adds that HYPE is an $86 billion token.
Polymarket ahead of Hyperliquid: what DefiLlama data shows
These figures come from Polymarket, not an independent count. We therefore cross-referenced them with DefiLlama. Over these two days, the aggregator counted $9.88 million in fees paid by Polymarket users. Opposite, Hyperliquid totals 2.92 million, a little more than the 2.64 million cited by Modabber. Neither his message nor his graph specify the source of this figure. The order of magnitude put forward by Modabber, however, remains the correct one.
First downside, these are gross costs, before any redistribution. Of this total, $8.09 million comes from Polymarket US, the group's American platform. DefiLlama estimates these fees based on transactions published by the platform. On the other hand, the aggregator specifies that it cannot calculate what the company keeps.
For the rest of the activity, on Polygon, this calculation exists. Of the $1.78 million in fees, Polymarket keeps $0.87 million. The balance goes into discounts and rewards paid to users.
Second downside, the weekend is the most favorable time at Polymarket. During the week, the gap narrows significantly. On Monday, September 21, Hyperliquid even collected $4.65 million in fees, compared to $2.83 million for Polymarket. For the whole of September, Polymarket totaled $93.6 million, compared to $72.2 million for its rival. The advance therefore exists, but it falls to around 30%.
This is not a first. In June, Polymarket had already surpassed Hyperliquid over 24 hours, with 1.18 million dollars against 815,000, according to Crypto Briefing. The media then warned that the revenues of a betting platform follow events.
POLY token: why the comparison with HYPE has its limits
That leaves the figure of 86 billion dollars. It corresponds to the fully diluted valuation of HYPE, which also counts tokens not yet in circulation. The actual capitalization is around $20 billion, according to CoinGecko.
Above all, the two models differ. According to DefiLlama, 99% of Hyperliquid trading fees are used to redeem HYPE tokens. Over the weekend cited, this represents 2.24 million dollars. Polymarket does not yet have a token. There is therefore no indication that a future POLY would capture a share of these revenues.
Podcaster Andy, host of The Rollup, believes Coplan could deliver information about the token to Singapore. However, this is only a hypothesis.
Polymarket: a token teased for a year, recruitments talking about IPO
Coplan had already made the POLY ticker appear among the main cryptocurrencies in a message from October 2025. Intercontinental Exchange had then just committed to investing up to $2 billion in Polymarket.
At the time, sources cited by the specialist press indicated that Polymarket would wait before launching its token. Condition set: having regained a substantial share of the American market. A year later, the sources consulted do not mention any official timetable.
Since then, Polymarket has recruited alumni from Amazon, Uber, NYSE, Coinbase and Robinhood. These recruitments target in particular the positions of financial director and compliance manager. Analysts see this as preparations for an IPO rather than an imminent token launch.
Furthermore, the commercial success of the platform has its downside: 69% of individual accounts lose money on the platform.
A token and an IPO are not mutually exclusive, but nothing confirms one or the other. Perhaps Coplan will tell Singapore what is going on.
