TPLF rebels withdraw from Mekelle as regional unrest grows over Ethiopian conflict

Over the weekend, TPLF rebels retreated from Mekelle in the war-torn province of Tigray. The major airport outside the city, which along with two other airports fell to the rebels in a blitzkrieg last week, is now back in the control of the federal government.

A person in Mekelle, who cannot be named for security reasons, tells DN that federal troops have been seen in and outside Mekelle and they are also heading north towards the town of Adigrat near the border with Eritrea. The situation in Mekelle is calm on Monday morning but residents worry about the risk of looting as many police stations have been abandoned by personnel loyal to the rebels.

According to the source, support for the TPLF rebels has declined among the civilian population, which is exhausted after years of conflict and unrest. The last war, which ended four years ago, is believed to have cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

The conflict between the TPLF and the government of peace prize winner Abiy Ahmed is fundamentally about differences over how Ethiopia should be governed in the long term. But through complicated chains of alliances and enmities, significantly more actors can be drawn into the war. Eritrea is believed to be first in line of these. The neighboring country stood by Abiy's side during the last war in Tigray but has now turned against him.

Amnesty International claims that civilian buildings have been damaged by artillery shelling and airstrikes and warns that violations of international law may have been committed in the fighting. The organization is appealing for the African Union's Peace and Security Council to meet in order to slow down the development if possible.

"This is particularly critical as there is growing concern about a regionalization of the conflict," Amnesty wrote in a statement on Friday.

Two days later came confirmation of their fears that the entire region could be drawn into the Ethiopian civil war. In the Egyptian coastal city of El-Alamein, the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan met on Sunday to discuss "regional issues", alongside a previously scheduled AU meeting. On paper, the four countries do not have much in common, but each actor has his own reasons for fighting Abiy's regime in Addis Ababa.

That everything was about Ethiopia was clear in the declaration that followed the meeting, even if the country is not mentioned by name. The parties settled on their positions on a range of issues, from Nile waters to who has the right to control the Red Sea. In almost all formulations, the cape was directed towards Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia and Egypt are, after Nigeria, Africa's largest countries by population and are counted among the continent's strongest military powers. For many years they have been on a collision course over the sensitive issue of the Nile and they are already fighting a proxy war in neighboring Sudan.

A new front can be opened in this indirect war if Egypt, via Eritrea, is drawn into Ethiopia. The fact that Somalia also figures in the context indicates that Abiy has been isolated regionally.

The burden of the pressured peace prize winner Abiy is the alliance that a total of seven Ethiopian rebel groups have recently formed against him. This alliance means that even as Abiy makes gains in Tigray, vulnerability to attack elsewhere increases as he sends more troops north.