A UN commission of inquiry accused Russia on Monday October 26 of "crimes against humanity" due to its repeated strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Since February 24, 2022 and the invasion of Ukraine on the orders of Vladimir Putin, Moscow has continued to try to weaken kyiv on the energy front, but also the European Union. From 2022, Russia has decided to significantly reduce its gas exports to Europe, mainly via pipelines or gas pipelines. For their part, the Twenty-Seven have taken measures to get out of this dependence.
As a result, European consumption of Russian gas has decreased significantly in a few years. “In 2022, Russia supplied 40% of European gas. Today, it is 12%,” explains Ines Bouacida, researcher specializing in energy at the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI), as confirmed by figures from the International Energy Agency.
“We tried to import more natural gas”
The European Union has thus "marginally tried to import more natural gas via pipelines from other countries (Norway, Algeria, Azerbaijan, etc.), explains the expert. But above all we have imported more liquefied natural gas (LNG), since it is a way of transporting gas which is much more fluid, much more flexible, because it is by boat." Pipelines are in fact much more subject to geopolitical hazards and require very heavy infrastructure.
The LNG imported by the 27 is “mainly American and Qatari”, adds Ines Bouacida. However, "some of it comes from Russia." Faced with the very significant reduction in pipeline imports, LNG has even become the main form of Russian gas transported to the European Union, whereas its share was previously marginal.
To reduce dependence on Russia's resources and thus no longer finance its war effort, the Twenty-Seven adopted regulations in January 2026 aimed at banning all imports of Russian gas. It came into force on March 18, although exceptions exist – for companies that had signed contracts over several years – until January 1, 2027 (for LNG) and until September 2027 (for gas via pipelines). Despite this law, imports of Russian LNG increased further in 2026. According to the German NGO Urgewald, imports from the Yamal terminal, from which the vast majority of Russian LNG sent to the EU comes, increased by 9.5% over the period from January to September 2026, compared to the same period last year.
According to Ines Bouacida, several economic reasons explain this increase. In February 2026, American and Israeli strikes on Iran, followed by aftershocks on many Gulf states, led to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of several gas terminals in the region. “It was a very strong disruption to the gas and oil markets,” underlines the specialist. “In this area which contains half of the world’s gas reserves, it wiped out part of the supply on the world market.” The EU then shifted its imports from the Middle East to other suppliers, "including Russia", she says.
Furthermore, “a particularly cold winter of 2025-2026” at European level has driven up gas demand. “We also consumed more stocks than in previous years,” continues Ines Bouacida. They are mainly used for heating buildings. The EU generally fills its stocks between the end of winter and autumn. But, faced with the prohibitive prices generated by the crisis in the Middle East, "stocks are significantly less full than they normally are at this time of the year", specifies the researcher. “Since 2022, we have paid particular attention to filling stocks ahead of winter,” she adds.
“We have a phenomenon of precipitation”, estimates for his part Thomas Pellerin-Carlin, Public Place MEP and member of the Committee on Industry, Research and Energy. According to the elected official, who participated in the writing of the new European regulations, “buyers make sure to buy as much as possible before this ban takes place”.
An “opportunity to diversify supplies”
Will the European Union suddenly be able to do without what still represented more than 13% of its gas in the second quarter, according to data from the Bruegel Institute analyzed by franceinfo? Thomas Pellerin-Carlin has no doubts about it. “There have still been improvements in energy efficiency and the deployment of renewable energies since 2022. Part of the Russian gas that we will no longer buy does not need to be replaced,” he assures in particular. Ines Bouacida shares her opinion. However, she recalls that the European Commissioner for Energy, Dan Jorgensen, wrote a letter to European leaders at the end of September, asking them to consider significant reductions in energy consumption this winter.
Beyond greater sobriety, Gergely Molnar, gas market specialist at the International Energy Agency (IEA), sees in the ban on the import of Russian LNG an “opportunity to further diversify its gas supplies”. In a note published on the organization's website in September, he mentions "new projects in North America and Africa", during a period when "the global supply of LNG is entering an unprecedented phase of expansion".
However, this development in the production of LNG, a fossil energy, worries environmental NGOs. “The climate impact of LNG imports in Europe is largely underestimated,” wrote Transport and Environment in 2024, affirming that this gas “emits on average 30% more CO2 equivalent than what is officially counted.” Furthermore, a “decarbonization roadmap for the maritime sector” dating from 2023 and published on the website of the Ministry of the Sea highlights that the carbon gain of LNG compared to fuel oil varies between -17% and +6%.
The diversification of imports advocated by the IEA could, however, relieve consumers' gas bills. “The geopolitical uncertainties [conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East] are starting to become long-term. At the French level, consumers generally have guaranteed prices when they take out their contract with a guarantee for one year or over a fairly long period. But in the medium term, what does that look like?” asks Ines Bouacida, pointing out an increase already experienced by many French people. “Wholesale prices have increased. This means that gas suppliers to ordinary people are buying more expensively on international markets. So there is a point where this will probably be passed on to consumers,” she adds. In France, the benchmark gas price must increase by 6.6% on November 1.
