Brasilia. In the election four years ago, the candidates were Lula and Bolsonaro - now the two names are back on the ballot in Brazil. But instead of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest, this time his eldest son Flávio is running against the 80-year-old incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. “I can be calmer, more smiling, more relaxed and more moderate,” said Flávio about his differences from his father when he became a presidential candidate. “But Bolsonaro’s blood flows here.”
The 45-year-old senator from the right-wing Liberal Party (PL) stands for the reduction of state services and a tougher approach to crime - Lula from the left-wing Workers' Party (PT) for continuing his government course with social programs, public investments and a stronger role for the state. Both are close together in the polls. Nobody achieves the absolute majority required to win the first round of voting.
Ten other candidates are also running, but they are well behind their two rivals - including governors Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema as well as the psychiatrist and author Augusto Cury. Everything indicates that Lula and Bolsonaro will meet again in a runoff election. Around 159 million Brazilians are called to vote, which is mandatory in Latin America's largest country.
The tense security situation with frequent attacks, the presence of powerful drug gangs in the favelas and widespread gender-specific violence characterizes everyday life in many regions. Bolsonaro is taking a hard line: Among other things, he wants to build high-security prisons based on the model of El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele, lower the age limit for criminal responsibility and enable the chemical castration of sex offenders.
Lula, on the other hand, primarily wants to declare war on the financial structures of criminal groups. “While the PT often does not provide a convincing answer here, Bolsonaro can score points with activism,” writes the Journal for International Politics and Society (JPG).
Corruption has also become an important election campaign issue. The focus is on the scandal surrounding the former owner of the Banco Master financial institution, Daniel Vorcaro. The federal police are investigating financial crimes worth billions and allegations of corruption. Flávio Bolsonaro is also being investigated for payments made by Vorcaro for the film “Dark Horse” about Jair Bolsonaro. According to the police, around 61 million reals (around 10 million euros) are said to have flowed. Flávio denies any irregularities and speaks of private financing.
The case has also reached the Supreme Court (STF). News from Vorcaro to judge Alexandre de Moraes as well as a contract for around 131 million reals (around 22 million euros) between Banco Master and the law firm of Moraes' wife became known. Moraes, who played a central role in the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro, rejects allegations of wrongdoing.
An open dispute then developed within the STF. Judge André Mendonça, appointed by Jair Bolsonaro, was temporarily the rapporteur in the master proceedings and made the contacts public. Moraes accused Mendonça of exploiting the proceedings for political purposes. The case sparked widespread debate about the independence and role of the Supreme Court.
The relationship between Latin America's largest economy and the USA is also an issue in the election campaign. US President Donald Trump clearly supported former President Jair Bolsonaro and sharply criticized his sentence to more than 27 years in prison for his involvement in an attempted coup.
According to research by the British newspaper The Guardian, a million dollars from a US State Department fund will be earmarked for a program that will finance groups that accuse the Brazilian Supreme Court of overstepping its authority and censorship. It is unclear whether the money has already been paid. The Brazilian Attorney General's Office has therefore asked the police and public prosecutor's office to investigate.
The government under Lula has been warning about foreign influence in the election for some time. At the end of August, Brazil's secret service Abin pointed out the risk of US influence and increasing pressure on Brazil, according to the Agência Brasil news agency. Flávio Bolsonaro's brother Eduardo, who lives in the USA, also repeatedly pushed for Washington to impose sanctions on STF judges.
Unlike in the 2022 election campaign, environmental and Amazon protection is not the focus this time. Under Lula, deforestation rates fell and environmental authorities were strengthened, according to data from the space research institute Inpe. However, there were also controversial infrastructure projects under his government, and he is far from achieving the desired goal of stopping deforestation by 2030.
During Bolsonaro's term in office, deforestation and slash-and-burn practices increased sharply. Experts expect a similarly lax environmental policy and a relaxation of regulations under his son Flávio. Steffen Bauer from the German Institute for Development Policy (IDOS) therefore describes the election as a “fundamental directional decision”.
In Latin America's largest country, Sunday is not just about the future government. Given the ongoing polarization in Brazil, the election is about fundamental questions about the state, security, justice, dealings with the USA and the Amazon rainforest.
