The value of goods sent from Poland to Ukraine increased from approximately EUR 5.2 billion in December 2020 to EUR 14.1 billion in May 2026. This is an increase of nearly 169%.
At the same time, imports from Ukraine increased from approximately EUR 2.5 billion to EUR 4.4 billion, i.e. by almost 72%.
The data was prepared on the basis of Eurostat statistics. BGK used twelve-month rolling totals, which allow tracking changes in the value of trade over a longer period.
The faster growth rate of exports translated into a record surplus on the Polish side. At the end of 2020, it amounted to approximately EUR 2.7 billion, and in May 2026 it was already EUR 9.7 billion. The ratio of the surplus to the total value of Polish exports to Ukraine increased in this period from 51.7 percent. up to 69.1 percent
Ukraine is also becoming more and more important for Polish exporters. Its share in Poland's total exports increased from 2.2%. in December 2020 to 3.8 percent in May 2026. After stabilization visible since mid-2025, sales to the Ukrainian market accelerated again in the first months of 2026.
Poland is the leader in EU exports to Ukraine
Poland is the largest EU exporter to Ukraine. Our share increased from 22.7%. at the end of 2020 to 29.5 percent in May 2026.
Germany came second, accounting for 18.5%. EU exports to Ukraine. They were followed by Hungary, the Czech Republic and Italy.
According to BGK's analysis, more than half of the increase in Polish exports to Ukraine after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion resulted from three groups of goods. This concerns energy resources and energy, weapons and ammunition, as well as aircraft and aviation equipment. In total, these categories accounted for approximately 53.4 percent. export growth between February 2022 and May 2026.
The sales of energy raw materials and energy increased the most - from approximately EUR 100 million at the end of 2020 to EUR 2.7 billion in May 2026. The share of these products in Polish exports to Ukraine increased from 1.9%. up to 19.5 percent
In May, Ukraine was the recipient of approximately 30.5 percent. entire Polish export of energy raw materials and energy.
"Goods related to defense and aviation also played an important role. Weapons, ammunition, aircraft and aviation equipment accounted for a total of approximately 12.5 percent of the value of Polish exports to Ukraine," we read in the analysis.
Poland was responsible for 44.9 percent. EU exports of defense and aerospace products to Ukraine, remaining the largest supplier of these goods in the EU.
Industry is the main source of surplus
At the same time, the largest part of sales from Poland still constitutes civilian industrial goods. Their exports increased from approximately EUR 4.3 billion in December 2020 to EUR 8 billion in May 2026. Non-military industrial products provided Poland with more than half of its entire trade surplus with Ukraine. The positive balance in this group amounted to approximately EUR 5.1 billion.
The largest contributions in this case were: telecommunications equipment, passenger cars, machines, electrical equipment and fertilizers.
Another approximately EUR 2.7 billion surplus was allocated to energy raw materials and energy. Weapons, ammunition and aviation products accounted for approximately EUR 1.8 billion.
Food is still important in imports
Polish imports from Ukraine are still dominated by non-military industrial goods, the value of which amounted to approximately EUR 2.9 billion.
However, in recent years, the importance of agri-food products has increased. In May 2026, they accounted for 33.3%. imports from Ukraine, while in December 2020 it was 24.7%.
However, the value of agri-food imports remains lower than during the period of the greatest inflow of Ukrainian products. In March 2023, it exceeded EUR 2.5 billion, and in May 2026 it amounted to approximately EUR 1.4 billion.
Ukraine's share in total Polish imports of food and agricultural products decreased from 8.4 percent during this time. to about 4 percent, although it is still higher than before the outbreak of the full-scale war.
Food is the only large category with a deficit
Agricultural and food products remain the only main group of goods in which Poland buys more from Ukraine than it sells there. However, the deficit in this part of trade decreased from over EUR 1.6 billion in March 2023 to approximately EUR 309 million in May 2026.
"The greatest impact on the negative balance had vegetable fats and oils as well as animal feed," the monitor indicated.
