Presidential 2027: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen on the rise, Édouard Philippe still on the decline according to a survey

Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon continue to lead voting intentions, the first well ahead of the second, while their pursuers Édouard Philippe and Raphaël Glucksmann are losing ground, according to a Harris Interactive poll for M6/RTL published Monday.

In all the hypotheses tested by the institute, the second round of the presidential election would pit Marine Le Pen, credited with 34 to 36% of the votes, against Jean-Luc Mélenchon, between 18 and 19% of the voting intentions. Both the leader of the Insoumis and the RN candidate continue their momentum, up one to two points in most hypotheses compared to the previous wave from the same institute, published at the end of October.

David Lisnard three points from Édouard Philippe

Conversely, the mayor of Le Havre Édouard Philippe (Horizons), once neck and neck with Jean-Luc Mélenchon for access to the second round, is now well behind: credited with 11 to 14% of the votes, five to seven points now separate him from the LFI candidate. The social democratic candidate Raphaël Glucksmann also sees his momentum slowing down, stagnating or declining slightly with 11 to 13% of voting intentions.

Pressed by many actors from the right and the center to accept the idea of ​​a primary, Édouard Philippe still distances most of his competitors, but sees David Lisnard (Nouvelle Énergie) getting closer. The mayor of Cannes, dynamic in the polls in recent weeks, is credited with 9% of the votes, three points behind Édouard Philippe (12%) when he is a candidate, and tied with Gabriel Attal (Renaissance) when he embodies the Macronist camp (with in both cases Bruno Retailleau also a candidate). The boss of LR would collect 5 to 8% of the votes as an LR candidate, and 10% if he were the only candidate from the right and the center. In the same configuration, Gabriel Attal would have the same score (10%).

Marine Le Pen would win in the second round in all scenarios

In the second round, Marine Le Pen would win by a large margin, regardless of her opponent, but her victory would be the clearest against Jean-Luc Mélenchon (68% of the votes against 32%). Facing Édouard Philippe, the far-right candidate would obtain 58% of the votes, compared to 60% against Raphaël Glucksmann. A poll, like any opinion survey, is a snapshot of the moment with no predictive value.

Survey carried out online from November 3 to 5 with a sample of 2,101 people registered on the electoral lists, representative of the French population aged 18 and over. The margin of error is between 1 and 2.3 points.