Press review: Russia-US diesel deal changes Ukraine game and Riyadh airport attack fallout

MOSCOW, October 12. /TASS/. The Russia-US diesel deal changes the landscape of the Ukraine conflict; Saudi Arabia weighs a response after Houthis attack airport in Riyadh; and Slovakia will ask the European Commission to allow it to import fuel from Russia regardless of the planned ban. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.

Media: Impact of Russia-US diesel deal

The latest telephone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump has significantly altered the situation around Ukraine, with a deal reportedly struck between the two leaders on supplies of Russian diesel to the US. What's more, Washington has temporarily eased restrictions on Russian fuel and increased pressure on Kiev to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries. However, some believe European countries may try to use Ukraine to prevent the new Russian-US agreements from being implemented. Meanwhile, experts believe the deal itself is primarily a political play because the stated volumes of fuel are not large enough to have a noticeable impact on the American market.

The agreement on diesel fuel is the first tangible result of renewed direct contact between Moscow and Washington, Russian Foreign Ministry’s Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. According to him, Russia would like to develop economic ties with the US independent of the Ukrainian conflict. "This is a significant step toward each other, which suggests that this area of cooperation can expand to other issues without the Ukrainian conflict serving as this giant obstacle to the development of Russia-US relations," the diplomat noted.

This deal also served as a signal to Kiev after Trump had repeatedly urged Ukraine not to attack Russian fuel infrastructure, Konstantin Sukhoverkhov, a program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, pointed out. According to him, Washington might have viewed Kiev's refusal to heed these requests as a disregard for a country that continues to support Ukraine. Trump, for his part, demonstrated that he is capable of negotiating directly with Moscow, if necessary, without waiting for a change in Kiev’s position.

"We are witnessing a fundamentally new situation: this is the most significant positive development in US-Russia relations since the Anchorage summit and, at the same time, the deepest crisis in US-Ukraine relations since February 2025," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Russian National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Vedomosti. Until now, the US had stated that any practical cooperation with Russia would be possible only after at least a ceasefire in Ukraine. Now, however, the position has changed: the diesel deal is not contingent on a truce in any way, the analyst emphasized.

Experts believe that Russian diesel fuel will not be sufficient to make up for the global shortfall of petroleum products. According to the most conservative estimates, global demand for diesel fuel exceeds 58 million metric tons per month, excluding maritime shipments, Open Oil Market CEO Sergey Tereshkin noted. However, the expert pointed out that the impact of the deal should not be underestimated. Analysts believe that Russian diesel shipments will help stabilize global prices in the short term, particularly in the US and the EU.

Vedomosti: How Saudi Arabia could respond following Houthi attack on Riyadh airport

On October 11, the Saudi authorities suspended operations at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh indefinitely, immediately following the deadliest airstrike on the facility since the start of the Middle East crisis earlier this year. According to media reports, missiles struck Terminals 3 and 4, causing serious damage to the airport and prompting the collapse of part of the roof onto people inside. The Saudi General Authority of Civil Aviation reported that 12 people were killed and 309 civilians were injured. While it's widely believed that the Houthis of Yemen’s Ansar Allah rebel group were behind the attack, they have not yet officially claimed responsibility.

Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, told Vedomosti that it won't be easy for the Saudis to claim any kind of military victory over the Houthis. According to him, this would require establishing Saudi control over enemy territory, which would precipitate a costly guerrilla war. Moreover, today’s methods of warfare, the international situation, and the threats differ from those of the previous stage of the crisis. "It is easier to negotiate with Ansar Allah than to defeat them. Yemen is an extremely fragmented country, and unifying it by military means is difficult," the Middle East expert emphasized.

Saudi Arabia will most likely intensify its bombing campaign in Yemen and attempt to directly involve the US in the military operation against the Houthis, Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, noted. However, the Americans are doing everything they can to avoid that prospect, especially in the run-up to the midterm elections. "The signatories to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement will likely limit themselves to sending an insignificant number of specialists to the country to bolster its air defense. However, Pakistan and Turkey do not have sufficient resources of their own for this," the expert stressed.

Bocharov did not rule out the possibility of the Saudis carrying out a ground invasion in Yemen. Should they do that, though, the Saudi army risks getting bogged down there for an indefinite period, the analyst warned. "Riyadh is theoretically ready for talks, but the current escalation is a consequence of accumulated regional problems. The conditions for dialogue are not yet ripe," he pointed out.

The attack on the Riyadh airport damages Saudi Arabia’s image as a safe place to live and conduct international business, expert Nikolay Sukhov emphasized, and it is especially damaging for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, the de facto head of Saudi Arabia. "The Houthis are well aware of this vulnerability. All they need to do is periodically demonstrate their ability to disrupt airport, energy facility, and transport network operations, thereby raising the economic and political cost of continuing the war," the expert stressed.

Izvestia: Slovakia to lobby European Commission for permission to import fuel from Russia

Despite a general ban on importing gas from Russia, Slovakia plans to begin talks with the European Commission to continue doing just that. Earlier, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed that EU countries will be expected to halt Russian gas purchases by the end of 2027. However, reports indicate the EU is facing a record fuel shortage which could hit as early as this winter. Experts note that landlocked countries like Hungary and Slovakia may suffer more than others.

Slovakia will request a transition period from the European Commission while it continues receiving fuel supplies from Russia, National Council Deputy Speaker Tibor Gaspar told Izvestia. According to him, "the decision to completely halt imports of Russian gas is not in the interests of either Slovakia or the EU as a whole." "We have filed a lawsuit with the EU Court of Justice and intend to use all available legal means to protect Slovakia’s energy security. At the same time, we will negotiate with the European Commission on the possibility of securing a sufficient transition period to continue Russian gas supplies, if necessary," the politician noted.

In light of potential force majeure situations, Brussels will likely extend Slovakia’s authorization to purchase Russian gas, Mikhail Vedernikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe under the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized. With parliamentary elections scheduled for next year, it is crucial for the country’s authorities to ensure uninterrupted gas supplies. The country has already secured the necessary reserves for the coming winter thanks to its contract with Russia's Gazprom, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova pointed out.

Moreover, the country has no access to the sea, which means it will have to bring LNG in from Croatia, which will cost more, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, stressed. According to the expert, a 20-30% increase in gas prices could create significant economic problems for Bratislava. The Slovak authorities are already spending large sums to compensate for rising gas and electricity rates for the population. More than 400 million euros have been allocated for this purpose alone this year.

The energy crisis in Europe will only get worse if the continent moves to completely reject Russian resources, Yushkov emphasized. Brussels' concern, however, is not to protect European businesses and citizens, but to hurt Russia economically. Nevertheless, growing resistance to such a policy indicates that Europe will not be able to completely abandon Russian energy resources.

Izvestia: South Korea's trade ships could become regular sight on Northern Sea Route

The South Korean authorities hope to launch regular commercial voyages along the Northern Sea Route. A final decision will be made after reviewing the results of a soon-to-be-completed maiden voyage by a South Korean container ship that delivered goods to Europe in August. The Northern Sea Route is 35% shorter than the traditional route through the Suez Canal, reducing travel time and fuel costs. Diversifying shipping routes is also important given the escalating conflict in the Middle East. However, if Seoul decides to actively use the Northern Sea Route, it risks facing pressure and sanctions from the US, and it will also need to invest heavily in the construction of high-level ice-class vessels.

Seoul has organized a pilot commercial voyage to Europe via the Northern Sea Route and is currently awaiting its completion. The vessel set sail on August 22 and will return to the port of Busan on October 12, after which a decision may be made to launch regular voyages, South Korean Ambassador to Moscow Lee Sok-bae told Izvestia. "This project is extremely important. Most likely, our relevant ministries and agencies will conduct a comprehensive study based on the results of this maiden voyage, and then we will consider the possibility of organizing regular service in the medium and long term," he said.

Seoul’s interest in the Northern Sea Route has intensified following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Alexander Zhebin, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out. In particular, regular Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have made the Suez Canal route high-risk and sharply increased ship insurance costs. Enter Europe, one of Seoul’s main trading partners. According to the European Commission, trade between the EU and South Korea totaled 124 billion euros in 2025.

However, to establish regular voyages along the Northern Sea Route, South Korea must address several challenges. The US may apply various forms of pressure to Seoul, Zhebin noted. At the same time, the South Korean authorities will argue that their actions are driven by vital economic necessity in their dialogue with the Americans. Therefore, it remains unclear whether this voyage will mark the beginning of a long-term project or remain a one-time endeavor, Konstantin Asmolov, a leading researcher at the Center for Korean Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, emphasized.

According to Zhebin, Seoul’s intentions can only be judged once South Korea begins investing heavily in the Northern Sea Route's infrastructure rather than merely using it. He predicts that in the future, this country could indeed become a regular user of the Northern Sea Route. If current climate trends continue, year-round shipping on the Northern Sea Route could become a reality, Asmolov noted. Such a scenario would radically transform the global freight transport system.

Media: India’s protests unite opposition, youth Cockroach movement

On October 10, India's opposition parties held multi-day protests that resulted in the detention of over 5,000 people. The rallies and marches were organized by the recently formed Cockroach Janta Party youth movement and the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), a coalition of opposition parties including the country’s oldest party, the Indian National Congress, led by Rahul Gandhi. The metro in New Delhi was shut down amid the protests, and opposition demonstrations also took place in India’s largest city, Mumbai.

Street protests are quite common in India, Yevgenia Zeegofer, a junior research fellow at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. For now, the Indian authorities are trying to contain the scale and intensity of the protests by using force. However, it is likely that people will take to the streets again. The protests are currently directed against India’s Election Commission reforms. The opposition and protesters claim that many have been deprived of their right to vote, while the government maintains that it has mainly removed deceased individuals from the voter rolls. Overall, however, according to Zeegofer, the protests draw attention to the problems facing Indian youth and the issues that concern this generation. They are unlikely to topple the Narendra Modi government, but they could cause it trouble, as tensions will persist, the expert emphasized.

Ilya Spektor, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Asian and African Studies, believes that the activities of the young protesters and the opposition are unlikely to pose any real serious problems for the Modi government, which has already weathered many serious protests.

In turn, Tatyana Shaumyan, head of the Center for Indian Studies under the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that these protests are organic, not the result of external influence. "Of course, India has an adversary on the international stage. That is Pakistan. There are terrorist groups that have committed crimes in India. But I don’t think any external force is provoking the current protests. As for the Cockroach Janta Party, it is more of a short-lived phenomenon. This party has no serious program for reforming the country. Demonstrations take place in all democratic countries and do not always lead to the fall of governments. The government in India is strong. It will undoubtedly cope with the current problems," she stressed.