Brazilian grain production expected to increase despite El Niño

Brazilian grain production for the 2026/2027 harvest is expected to exceed 367 million tons, an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous harvest. The projection was released this Thursday by the National Supply Company (Conab) based on data gathered in the 1st Grain Harvest Survey 2026/2027.

The growth is due to the increase in the cultivated area, which is expected to grow 2.3% compared to the last harvest and reach 85.4 million hectares.

The soybean harvest is expected to increase slightly, by 0.7%, reaching 181.6 million tons. The area to be sown is expected to grow by 1.4%, with emphasis on the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná, which together account for more than 60% of the grain cultivation area.

In the case of corn, the increase in production should be 2.4%, with the total volume of grains reaching 148 million tons. Growth is driven by the increase in planted area, which is expected to grow 4.9% in relation to the 2025/2026 cycle.

Bean production should remain stable with an estimated volume of 2.9 million tons. The projection for the area sown in the first harvest is 808.2 thousand hectares, an increase of 1.9% compared to the last cycle. And in the second harvest, 963.1 thousand tons, 1.1% lower than the previous harvest. Brazil harvests three crops of beans annually.

Rice

Conab predicts a drop in rice production of 2.9%, despite an increase in the sown area. Rainfed planting is expected to increase by 7.1%. Planting in flooded areas, which is the majority of national production, is expected to remain stable, with a small increase of 0.4%.

The reason for the drop in productivity is the impact of El Niño, which is expected to affect the volume of rainfall in the South Region, where most of the national rice production is located.

According to the El Niño Panel, the meteorological phenomenon will hit Brazil severely in the second half of 2026 and early 2027. As a consequence, the forecast is that the South Region will have rainfall above the historical average, with risks of floods, storms and floods in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina.

The North and Northeast regions will have the opposite problem, a severe drought and drought. The Midwest and Southeast will be mainly affected by extreme heat.

The forecast production for wheat is 5.7 million tons this year. The volume is equivalent to an approximate reduction of 27.2% compared to the previous harvest. The drop is associated with the reduction in planted area and also the drop in cereal productivity.

Exports

Soybean grain exports are estimated at 117.97 million tons, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous harvest. In the case of corn, exports should reach 43.9 million tons. But the highlight of the cereal will be the growth of the domestic market by 6.6% due to ethanol production.

Rice exports are expected to reduce by 17.4%. This is because, as the forecast is for lower production, the grains must be consumed by the domestic market, which will remain stable.