Forecast raised: WTO sees surprisingly robust global economy - AI boom is driving forward

According to the WTO, global trade in goods will increase significantly more this year than initially feared given the many crises. On the one hand, this is due to the high demand for AI, but also the fewer direct consequences of the Middle East conflict. However, some industries are suffering significantly.

World trade is proving to be significantly more robust than expected given the crises and is developing significantly better. As a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its growth forecast for goods trade from 1.9 to 3.9 percent. The central reason is the sharp increase in investments in artificial intelligence (AI). In the first half of the year, demand for semiconductors, data centers and digital infrastructure was responsible for much of the global growth in goods trade, the WTO found. For next year, the WTO even expects an increase of 4.1 percent in goods trade. Last year, global trade growth was 4.6 percent.

The WTO in Geneva announced that the burden on world trade caused by the Middle East conflict with the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz was considerable, but was more than offset by the AI ​​boom. “The numbers demonstrate the resilience of trade in practice,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. The forecast increase is a sign that global supply chains have adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, it said.

Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by around a quarter and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by almost half in the first half of the year according to the WTO, thanks to other suppliers, the decline in global exports was limited to around six percent for crude oil and one percent for LNG. According to the WTO, global imports of nitrogen-containing fertilizers were only 2.8 percent below recent averages. Trade flows were redirected via alternative ports and corridors. By July, global container throughput had increased by 3.9 percent compared to the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, trade in commercial services is developing weaker than previously expected. The WTO lowered its forecast for the current year from 4.8 to 3.3 percent. Transport, travel and tourism are particularly affected. Higher fuel costs, flight restrictions and geopolitical tensions are reportedly slowing down business. However, a recovery to 6.4 percent is expected for next year.

This year, Asia will record the strongest growth in goods exports at 9.9 percent, it said. North America (5.7 percent), Africa (5.6 percent) and South America (3.4 percent) follow behind. Export development in Europe is likely to remain weak.

According to the WTO, the risks for 2027 include, in addition to the Middle East conflict, a possible weakening of AI investments and persistently high energy prices.