World trade: WTO revises growth prospects significantly upwards

Geneva. World trade is developing significantly better than expected this year. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its growth forecast for goods trade from 1.9 percent to 3.9 percent. The central reason is the sharp increase in investments in artificial intelligence. In the first half of 2026, demand for semiconductors, data centers and digital infrastructure accounted for much of the global growth in goods trade, the WTO said.

The WTO in Geneva announced that the burden on world trade caused by the Middle East conflict with the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz was considerable, but was more than offset by the AI ​​boom. In 2027, the WTO expects an increase of 4.1 percent in goods trade. Last year, global trade growth was 4.6 percent.

“The numbers demonstrate the resilience of trade in practice,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. The forecast increase is a sign that global supply chains have adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, it said.

Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by around 24 percent and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports by 47 percent in the first half of 2026 according to the WTO, thanks to other suppliers, the decline in global exports was limited to around six percent for crude oil and one percent for LNG.

According to the WTO, global imports of nitrogen-containing fertilizers were only 2.8 percent below recent averages. Trade flows were redirected via alternative ports and corridors. By July, global container throughput had increased by 3.9 percent compared to the beginning of the year.

Decline in tourism, among other things

Trade in commercial services is developing weaker than previously expected. The WTO lowered its forecast for 2026 from 4.8 to 3.3 percent. Transport, travel and tourism are particularly affected. Higher fuel costs, flight restrictions and geopolitical tensions are reportedly slowing down business. However, a recovery to 6.4 percent is expected for 2027.

This year, Asia will record the strongest growth in goods exports at 9.9 percent, it said. North America (5.7 percent), Africa (5.6 percent) and South America (3.4 percent) follow behind. Export development in Europe is likely to remain weak.

According to the WTO, the risks for 2027 include, in addition to the Middle East conflict, a possible weakening of AI investments and persistently high energy prices.