Proposal for a pension fund for newborns: simulations underway between INPS and the Ministry of Economy

However, the idea was not born today. It was Gabriele Fava, president of INPS, who brought it back to the center of the debate, taking up a proposal that had been presented about ten months ago during the process of the previous budget. The amendment, signed by Fratelli d'Italia senator Lavinia Mennuni, was not included in the final version of the maneuver. The hypothesized mechanism involved the opening of a social security fund at the INPS for each new born. The family would have had to pay at least 100 euros, while the State would have added a one-off contribution of 50 euros. For the public coffers the estimated expenditure at the time was around 18 million euros.

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The version being evaluated now would have significantly larger dimensions. According to the reconstruction of Repubblica, technicians from INPS and the Ministry of Economy are carrying out the necessary simulations to quantify the financial impact of the operation. Among the hypotheses under study is a state payment of 50 euros every month for the first three years of life of children born from 2027. In this way each position could receive a total of 1,800 euros of public resources. However, a measure of this type would have an increasing burden on the state budget. The first annuity could require around 200 million euros, while when fully operational the disbursement would reach around one billion, when the different generations of new beneficiaries begin to overlap.

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In addition to financial coverage, an equally important question remains to be resolved: who will manage and invest the money accumulated in the accounts. In fact, INPS does not currently have a structure designed to directly make investments in the financial markets. Despite this, the INPS president Fava and the Labor Minister Marina Calderone are evaluating a role for the Institute in the implementation of the project. Supplementary pension funds are already interested in the possible involvement. On the one hand there are the negotiated funds, born from the agreement between companies and trade unions, on the other the open ones, offered above all by banks and insurance companies. The unions also seem to agree on the issue, even if they reiterate the importance of governance. CISL general secretary Daniela Fumarola underlined how entrusting resources entirely to public management could create risks in the long term, but not even the opposite solution, i.e. leaving everything to the market, would be sufficient. The CISL proposal is to focus on negotiation funds, born from negotiations between unions and companies and already subject to the supervision of Covip.

To build the new tool, we also look at the experiences adopted abroad. A reference is represented by Germany, where the Frühstartrente model provides for a public payment of 10 euros per month for each child aged 6 to 18. The money is allocated to an individual funded retirement account, chosen by the family. Parents and grandparents can also independently increase the sum through further payments. If the family does not open the account, management can be entrusted to a collective system coordinated by the Bundesbank.

However, the United Kingdom's experience with Child Trust Funds was different. The program provided for an initial public credit of 250 pounds, which rose to 500 for families with lower incomes. Overall, more than 6.3 million accounts were opened, with more than £2 billion in public resources. Family participation, however, was not particularly high: only 37% decided to add their own payments. The program was discontinued in 2011, but its financial consequences remain. Even today, there are approximately 760,000 accounts that have not been redeemed, with a total value of more than £1.5 billion.

Even in our country there are already some measures that follow a similar logic. In Trentino-Alto Adige, for example, support can reach up to 1,100 euros in the first five years of the child's life, provided that from the second year the family makes payments of at least 100 euros per year. In Friuli-Venezia Giulia, a contribution of 200 euros per year is provided for each child, provided that the family unit has made payments of at least 300 euros. Another experience is that of Solidarietà Veneto, a local negotiated pension fund to which members' family members can also join.

For the moment Giorgetti has not provided precise indications on the formula that could be adopted by the government. The central point, also in light of the other interventions envisaged by the next budget, remains the compatibility of the operation with the public accounts. However, the minister also launched a broader topic on complementary pensions, asking why a significant portion of pension fund investments is directed abroad rather than towards the Italian economy. It is therefore possible that the debate on the fund for newborns will be intertwined with the more general one on the role of social security savings in the development of the country.

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