Michael Carpenter, formerly the US ambassador to the OSCE and Biden's adviser for Europe, referred to the recent series of talks in Abu Dhabi, Moscow and Dublin devoted to ending Russia's war against Ukraine. As he assessed, starting talks with Moscow turned out to be counterproductive.
Russia checks the West
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner made a huge mistake by agreeing with the Russian position that the United States, together with its European partners, should consider building a new European security architecture. It was a completely unnecessary concession, Carpenter told PAP.
When the Russians start talking about rebuilding the security architecture in Europe, as they did at the end of 2021 and early 2022 (i.e. before the full-scale aggression against Ukraine - ed.), it means that they have no intention of making any concessions themselves, but only want to see what they can get from the West, he added.
He assessed that in Abu Dhabi, the Russian side did not agree to anything except an exchange of prisoners, which proves that Moscow has only hardened its position and maximalist demands.
The Kremlin's demands are just a cover
As the New York Times wrote, Russia started the negotiations in Abu Dhabi by presenting a list of demands referring directly to the ultimatum it set before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The issues included: for the withdrawal of NATO forces and bases from the countries of the eastern flank, resignation from further expansion of the Alliance and limiting the nuclear umbrella over European allies.
Carpenter, who served as U.S. ambassador to the OSCE in 2022, participated in talks with Russia on this topic at the time. As he mentioned, he already knew then - having access to intelligence information - that Russia would attack Ukraine, and the Kremlin's demands were just a cover and were formulated in such a way that they had to be rejected.
"The Russians destroyed everything"
However, he admitted that few European partners believed him at the time. As he reported, together with the then head of Polish diplomacy, Zbigniew Rau, he initiated a renewed dialogue on European security in the OSCE - not to normalize Russia's behavior, but to give it a platform to present its demands and expose their extreme nature.
It worked exactly as we imagined, he said. The Russians refused to have a substantive conversation, and we could say that we had made an attempt (to communicate with them - ed.).
Therefore, today there is no justification for discussing the architecture of European security. The Russians destroyed everything - every treaty, including agreements such as the Vienna Document (1994 Vienna Document on Confidence and Security Building Measures - ed.). There is nothing left to talk about, he emphasized.
Trump's envoys "look through the prism of dollars"
Carpenter said that although the actions of Witkoff and Kushner may seem naive, it is not naivety that is behind their actions. In his opinion, Trump's envoys want to reset US relations with Russia because they see it as an opportunity to strike a deal, but their interests do not coincide with Ukraine's.
"I have no doubt that (Vladimir Putin's envoy) Kirill Dmitriev and other Russians promised them huge business opportunities," he said. That's why (Kushner and Witkoff) look at it through the prism of dollars and how they can get richer if sanctions are eased, he added.
"Ukrainians do not always fully understand the world"
Before the talks in Abu Dhabi, one of the Ukrainian officials involved in the negotiations told PAP that Kiev's participation in Kushner and Witkoff's plan to expand the negotiations to include the issue of security architecture was based on the hope that it would help break the deadlock on Donbas and encourage Russia to be more flexible. Carpenter found this approach extremely flawed.
Perhaps there were Ukrainians who hoped that if the scope of the talks was expanded, Ukraine would have to make less concessions and the West would have to make some concessions. But this is very naive, he said.
This is almost as naive as some Ukrainians celebrating Trump's victory (in the presidential elections - editor) in 2024. Because indeed many people around (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelensky celebrated it. So it is clear that (Ukrainians) do not always fully understand the world as it really is, he said.
Will Poland's participation change much?
Referring to the participation of the European delegation, including Poland, in further talks, Carpenter said that he understands and supports the desire to be at the negotiating table, but in practice it will not change much.
The foundations of the talks remain the same, regardless of who sits at the table and at what level, he said. Europeans won't give up their security, Ukrainians won't give up the parts of Donbas they control or let Russia dictate their future, and Putin has no reason to make big concessions as long as he thinks Trump is on his side.
According to PAP's interlocutor, the reasons behind the hardening of the Russian position are the Kremlin's calculations related to the upcoming winter and the hope that the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure will lead to the depopulation of the largest centers in Ukraine and cause a refugee crisis.
In his opinion, there is no easy way out of the war for Putin, and at the same time he has "got a whiff of blood" due to the approaching winter and is counting on gaining an advantage.
