Quaest: 43% of voters who abstained in the first round declare their vote for Lula in the second
Research shows that the percentage of those who intend to vote for Lula in the second round is higher among voters who voted blank, null or did not vote in the first round.
By g1 Editorial
Quaest research released this Wednesday (14) shows that 43% of voters who abstained in the first round declare their vote for Lula.
Among those who abstained, 38% declared their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro. Whites, nulls or those who will not vote total 17%, and 2% are undecided.
In the general scenario of the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 46% of voting intentions. President Lula has 44%.
Quaest research released this Wednesday (14) shows that 43% of voters who voted blank, canceled their vote or did not attend the polls in the first round declare their intention to vote for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in the second round. Another 38% say they intend to vote for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL).
The group of voters who abstained represents 22% of those interviewed in the survey. In addition to the percentage of votes transferred to Lula or Bolsonaro, another 17% say they will vote blank, cancel the vote or will not vote in the second round. Another 2% are undecided.
See detailed survey data by electorate segments
The survey also shows how the votes of voters for other candidates in the first round are distributed in the second. Among Ronaldo Caiado's voters, 42% declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, while 23% say they will vote for Lula. Another 33% say they will vote blank, cancel their vote or not go to the polls, and 2% are undecided.
Among Renan Santos voters, 40% declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 14% for Lula. In this group, 43% say they will vote blank, cancel their vote or not vote at all, while 3% are undecided.
Among those who voted for writer Augusto Cury, Lula appears with 34% of voting intentions in the second round, against 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Another 30% say they will vote blank, cancel their vote or not go to the polls, and 6% are undecided.
See the numbers:
Of the voters who voted blank, invalid or did not vote:
43% declare their vote for Lula
38% in Flávio Bolsonaro
17% will keep their vote blank, null or will not vote
2% are undecided
Of the voters who voted for Ronaldo Caiado:
42% declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro
23% in Lula
33% will keep their vote blank, null or will not vote
2% are undecided
Of the voters who voted for Renan Santos:
40% declare their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro
14% in Lula
43% will keep their vote blank, null or will not vote
3% are undecided
Of the voters who voted for Augusto Cury:
34% declare their vote for Lula
30% in Flávio Bolsonaro
30% will keep their vote blank, null or will not vote
6% are undecided
The first Quaest poll in the second round shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 46% of voting intentions, against 44% for Lula. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper O Globo.
Quaest interviewed 2,154 people aged 16 and over between October 10th and 13th. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey is registered with the Electoral Court under number BR-08729/2026.
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula — Photo: REUTERS/Diego Vara and REUTERS/Adriano Machado
