
Survey carried out between October 10th and 13th points to 52% for Lula and 48% for Bolsonaro; 82% of voters say the choice is final
AI-generated summary
The research was carried out after defining the candidates who advanced to the second round, on October 4th. Voting will take place on October 25th, when voters across the country and abroad will decide the second round of the presidential election between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT).
This is the first round of research since the definition of the candidates who advanced to the second round, on the 4th. Voting will take place on October 25th. On that date, voters across the country and abroad will also decide the second round of the presidential election, between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula (PT).
Quaest also shows the results of the spontaneous poll, in which the names of the candidates are not shown to voters.
For 82% of voters interviewed in the survey, the choice of candidate is definitive. Another 17% say they can still change their vote until the second round.
Quaest interviewed 1,098 people aged 16 and over between October 10th and 13th. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The research registration number is TO-03829/2026.
Quaest also asked voters what their assessment was of Wanderlei Barbosa's work as governor. See the results:
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Lula will maintain an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro until the second round on October 25
Likely · Within weeks

Quaest research shows that 43% of voters who abstained, voted blank or canceled their vote in the first round intend to vote for Lula in the second round, while 38% support Flávio Bolsonaro. In the general scenario, Bolsonaro leads with 46% and Lula has 44%. The survey was carried out between October 10th and 13th with 2,154 respondents and a margin of error of two percentage points.

The government sent the Public Security PEC to Congress in April 2025. After criticism from opposition governors, the proposal was approved in the Chamber in March 2026 and advanced in the Senate, where it was voted on in the CCJ on April 14, 2026. The PEC increases federal action in security, provides for more severe penalties for faction leaders, seizure of assets without compensation, expansion of the PRF to waterways and railways, constitutionalization of the Susp and the possibility creation of municipal police forces. It still needs to go through two votes in the Senate plenary, with approval expected before the second round of elections, scheduled for October 25, 2026.

Meeting between legal advisors for presidential campaigns discusses when supporter channels should be registered as campaign channels before the TSE, after the 'Lula's Army' channel was taken down; preliminary agreements include suspension of pre-campaign actions and meeting with Meta on algorithms and irregular boosting.

The Chamber of Deputies approved a project that increases the MEI's revenue limit to R$110,000 in 2027 and R$140,000 from 2028 onwards, allows the hiring of up to two employees and forgives debts of defaulters contracted until October 13, 2026, with a fiscal impact estimated at more than R$6 billion between 2027 and 2029.

Intense rain flooded the Anhangabaú Tunnel in São Paulo on Wednesday afternoon (14), leaving cars and buses submerged. Mayor Ricardo Nunes stated that municipal teams are working to restore circulation, with one lane reopened at 7:14 pm. 42 mm of rain were recorded in 40 minutes, equivalent to 37% of the monthly average for October. Despite six drainage pumps operating continuously, the volume exceeded the system's capacity. The Fire Department rescued trapped people and traffic towards the North Zone was not closed before the flooding, despite the existing protocol.

TSE minister Estela Aranha ordered the removal of seven publications on social networks that falsely associated candidate Lula with a satanic ritual during a demonstration on Avenida Paulista. The video, recorded during the 4th March to Exu in August 2026, was decontextualized and shared with misleading text overlay. The decision cites the risk of misinformation close to the second round and obliges Meta to preserve engagement data.