Back in the spring, you could get +475 odds for there to be a first-time World Series champion in 2026. If you wagered that, congratulations as you've already cashed no matter what happens in the Fall Classic, which begins tonight with the Tampa Bay Rays visiting the Milwaukee Brewers. This is just the second World Series since 2021 between two franchises that have never won it, joining the 1980 set when Philadelphia beat Kansas City.
The home team has won the past three World Series Game 1s and the winner of the opener has taken six of the past eight World Series. First pitch is scheduled for around 8 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Both American Family Field and Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field are covered. I grew up on cold-weather outdoor World Series games but this will mark a second straight year there won't be any after Dodgers-Jays in 2025 (Toronto plays under a retractable roof).
At -198 via DraftKings, the Brewers are taking only 23% of the handle but 69% of the bets. On the total of 6.5, 78% of the money and 85% of the wagers are on the Over.
Favorites are 22-13 in these playoffs, including 16-11 at home. Both these clubs are 4-0 in these playoffs when scoring at least four runs. This has been a chalk postseason as the team with better regular-season record has won all 10 series so far. Only four times in the Divisional Era has a team with a better record swept all of them and not since 1986. On the series line, the Brewers are -165 and the Rays +145 with Milwaukee in six as the +360 favored outcome.
This will mark the fourth time in the last 10 seasons there is a first-time champion – Milwaukee was +3000 to win it all in the spring and Tampa Bay was +8000. There are only three total players on these two teams who have appeared in a World Series game.
Teams with home-field advantage have won 21 of 31 titles in the Wild Card Era (since 1994). The last team to enter a series as an underdog and win it was Atlanta in 2021. Milwaukee won two of three at home vs. Tampa Bay very early this regular season.
Brewers stars Jackson Chourio (+600) and William Contreras (+650) lead the way for World Series MVP, while Junior Caminero has the shortest Rays odds at +750.
How about Milwaukee ace Jacob Misiorowski at +800? He could pitch a good three times in the series if it goes seven and is set for Game 1. The sure-fire NL Cy Young Award winner took a home no-decision vs. the Rays on April 1, allowing two runs with four hits and seven strikeouts over six. Milwaukee has won the past 11 starts by "the Miz," although he personally is only 5-0 in that span. The team has been treating him cautiously as Misiorowski has not completed five full innings in either playoff start and is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA with 11 strikeouts and nine hits allowed in 8.1 innings.
Misiorowski's first pitch of NLDS Game 1 against the Padres was 104.8 mph, the fastest postseason pitch in the pitch-tracking era, but San Diego and then the Dodgers did a nice job working counts on him by fouling off pitches, etc. Half of the Dodgers' swings against him in Game 1 of the NLCS (21 of 42) produced foul balls.
The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Misiorowski at 5.4 innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 4.3 hits allowed and 1.8 earned runs. No Rays batter has more than three regular-season career at-bats off him and Yandy Diaz is the only one to go yard.
Look, Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash is one of the best in the business so he knows his squad a lot better than I do. But it's pretty stunning that he is not going with ace Drew Rasmussen, a former Brewer, on normal rest and is going with journeyman Nick Martinez instead. I don't doubt Cash but this might end up looking bad and he said he wanted Rasmussen on extra rest for Game 2.
The 36-year-old did have a career season at 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA in 31 starts but there's a reason the Rays are his fourth team and that Martinez had to play in Japan for a while. He has been solid in these playoffs at 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts spanning nine innings. Tampa Bay is 24-9 in his 33 total starts. He was much better away overall with a 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts during the regular season compared to a 3.90 ERA in 15 starts at Tropicana Field.
Martinez pitched in Milwaukee on March 30 and had a quality start with two earned runs allowed over six inning in a no-decision. Since he has been around a while, a lot of Brewers have seen Martinez, who used to play in the NL Central with Cincinnati. William Contreras is 5-for-18 with two homers and a double off him. The model has Martinez at 6.1 innings, 4.1 strikeouts, 5.1 hits allowed and 2.6 earned runs.
Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or fewer in five straight and eight of nine playoff games this year. The Rays are 1-4 all-time in road playoff Game 1s with that win in the 2011 ALDS at Texas. Of Milwaukee's seven wins in the 2026 postseason, six are of the comeback variety. Those are the most in the first eight games of any postseason in MLB history.
