Reactivation of the civil war in Yemen after four years of ceasefire

The Yemeni civil war, which began in 2014, has been reactivated after a four-year hiatus: the Asian country, one of the poorest in the world, has once again fallen into a spiral of violence. An accelerated advance by the Houthis southward along their western coast on the Red Sea resulted on Thursday in the capture of the port city of Mocha and on Friday in the seizure of the island of Mayun (or Perim) in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb. These are the most vicious clashes since a UN-led initiative in 2022 managed to stop large-scale fighting.

The escalation between the Houthis, aligned with the Iranian Government, and the Yemeni government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, in turn opens a new scenario of confrontation in the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, which until now was centered around the Strait of Hormuz, in the Persian Gulf. And it puts transportation at risk through another of the strategic maritime corridors for the energy sector and, in general, international trade.

In recent hours, tension in the Middle East has increased due to the intervention of pro-Iran Shiite militias in Iraq, which have launched a drone attack against the East-West oil pipeline, with which Saudi Arabia was bypassing Hormuz. Riyadh has been forced to close the flow through this pipe, but has assured that they will not respond to the aggression following the request of the Iraqi prime minister. These are the main actors in the conflict:

Houthis. Also known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), they are a military political faction that was born in the 1980s in the province of Saade, in northern Yemen, near the border with Saudi Arabia. Its initial objective was to “fight corruption and foreign influence.” They are part of the Zaidi religious movement, a branch of Shiite Islam that is quite deeply rooted in the country. In the context of the Arab revolutions, the Houthis took the opportunity to launch a military campaign in 2014 that led them to control the north of the country and the capital, Sanaa, where they remain based to this day.

The relationship of the Houthis with Iran has always been one of the most particular of the movements of the so-called “axis of resistance”, as the network of Shiite-majority groups that Iran has been building since the 1980s is known, among which is Hezbollah, the Shiite-majority militias in Iraq: Hash al Shabi and Hamas, among others. Although they have a strategic ally in Iran, from whom they receive aid and weapons, they maintain their independence.

In recent years, especially since the weakening of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and pressure from the Iraqi government, the Houthis have played an increasingly important role in the so-called “axis of resistance” as demonstrated by the missile launches towards Israel during the Gaza war.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assures that since July 28, the Houthis have increased coordination with the Revolutionary Guard and pro-Iranian militias in Iraq when they attacked Saudi oil infrastructure from Iraqi territory.

Iran. The relationship between the Islamic Republic and the Houthis was built years after the creation of this movement. And it grows exponentially after 2011, in the context of the so-called Arab Spring.

Tehran does not acknowledge having ordered the rebels to launch the offensive in recent days, but it is undoubtedly one of the biggest beneficiaries. This has been reflected by the Iranian media themselves, which have linked what happened in the Strait of Bab el Mandeb with what also happened in Hormuz. This Saturday, Iranian television showed live the rally in Sané where a crowd celebrated what they called the “collapse of the Saudi mercenary forces” on the western coast of Yemen.

"Ansarallah is an independent Yemeni actor who makes his own decisions; he does not take orders from anyone or act as a proxy for anyone," a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said on Friday. Along the same lines, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi himself, who attended the BRICS meeting in India as part of President Massoud Pezeshkian's delegation, assured that "Iran does not ask anyone to intervene in its defense, although if regional groups decide to do so it is their decision."

Government of Yemen. The Presidential Leadership Council is the highest authority of the internationally recognized Yemeni Government and heads what is known as the “anti-Houthi coalition.” Its creation dates back to April 2022, when then-president Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi transferred his powers to a council chaired by former Interior Minister Rashad al-Alimi.

This is made up of political and military leaders from both the north and south of the country and has the mandate to direct political, military and security affairs, in addition to conducting negotiations to reach a permanent ceasefire. However, their differences over territorial control and the distribution of power have made it difficult for years to build a unified front against the Houthis, as has become evident in recent days.

Its main external support is Saudi Arabia, which since 2015 has led a coalition of Arab countries that intervened in the civil war against the Houthis.

Government forces and allies. They fight under the umbrella of the internationally recognized Government, but do not constitute a unified army. Among its members are the armed forces and different military formations that retain their own commands, structures and interests. Its fragmentation and the existence of different chains of command have made military coordination of the government field difficult for years.

Saudi Arabia. The key date of Riyadh's intervention in Yemen occurred in 2015 when the Houthis advanced towards the south of the country after taking the presidential palace in Sana'a, and President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi left the city.

That episode occurred within the framework of growing tension between Riyadh and Tehran in which both countries fought a competition to project themselves as the great regional power. By then they were already positioned on opposing sides in other regional conflicts such as Syria and Iraq. The great peak of tension occurred in January 2016, when a group of Iranian militiamen entered the Saudi embassy in Tehran, which caused the closure of the diplomatic mission and the breaking of relations.