Republicans expect Sen. Darline Graham of South Carolina to lose her runoff race against Rep. Ralph Norman for the primary to replace her brother Lindsey Graham as the Republican nominee for Senate in November, according to a report.
President Donald Trump endorsed Graham to replace her brother in the Senate and then to run for a full term after Lindsey Graham died suddenly last month.
But Republicans doubt that Graham, who has no experience in politics before Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to the seat, can beat Norman, NOTUS reported.
She infamously flubbed a question during a debate with Norman last week about the U.S. position on the South China Sea and Taiwan, when she said “I’m just going to be honest here, I’m not that informed on national security” before adding “But I do support the military.”
“You’re running a campaign with a virtual unknown that took on all of her brother’s unfavorables without any of the goodwill that her brother has in a very short-sprint special election,” one operative with experience in South Carolina told NOTUS.
Lindsey Graham served as the senator since 2003. During that time, he developed a reputation for being a military hawk. But many also saw Graham as a Republican in Name Only for his past support for immigration reform. He initially criticized Trump before becoming one of the president’s biggest allies in Congress.
By contrast, Norman is a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, which is often a thorn in the side of Republican leadership. Norman ran for governor earlier this year, but failed to make it to the runoff race alongside fellow Republican Rep. Nancy Mace, who endorsed him for Senate.
Few polling outlets have conducted surveys in South Carolina. But Trafalgar, the conservative pollster, showed a dead heat between Graham and Norman.
“Her only good is hyper-engaged Trump voters. There is no Darline Graham voter,” the operative told NOTUS. “No one’s voting for Darline because of Darline.”
Rep. Russell Fry, who also ran for the Republican nomination for Senate, has endorsed Graham, while former governor Mark Sanford has endorsed Norman.
Trump has for his part gone all-in with Graham. MAGA Inc., the super PAC affiliated with Trump spent $827,711.11 to support her campaign. On Friday, Trump campaigned for her in Myrtle Beach and held a tele-rally for her Monday evening. As a whole, super PACs have pumped in more than $6 million to support her campaign.
One Senate Republican had a blunt response to Graham’s performance.
“Fire the debate preppers,” they told NOTUS. “Anybody with a couple of weeks should have been ready enough for that debate, and there was no evidence of ready in that debate.”
Graham has also criticized people who say she lacks experience, pointing to her work leading the South Carolina Commission for the Blind and her votes as a senator.
“I feel like I’ve done more … in 20 days than he has done in 20 years,” she said.
But Graham faces a challenge considering Norman’s conservative credentials. Organizations such as Turning Point USA have endorsed him.
“He can always outflank you to the right,” the operative told NOTUS, citing how Trump has not criticized Norman too much, despite the fact he endorsed Nikki Haley in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
“All of the negatives have already been used against him,” the operative said.
