Rio Grande do Sul leads electoral indecision for presidency and state government in 2026

A large part of the Rio Grande do Sul electorate has not decided who to vote for in the 2026 elections. The statement applies to different spheres of power: Rio Grande do Sul appears among the states with the greatest indecision both in the state government dispute and in the national election in surveys released by Quaest over the last week.

RS is the state with the largest number of undecided voters in the survey for the presidency of the Republic. While 34% of those interviewed declared their vote for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and 28% of them chose Lula (PT), 18% say they have not yet made up their mind. The state is followed by Minas Gerais (17%) and Paraná (17%).

For Rodrigo Stumpf Gonzalez, political scientist and professor at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), political polarization has generated wear and tear among the electorate, who end up not defining their vote in advance.

"There are a series of factors in this process. One, it is a certain tiredness of polarization. There is a portion of the electorate that does not adhere to the poles, but also does not feel covered by the alternatives. They may even end up voting for one of the poles, but they do not mobilize because of it", he explains.

The polls show indicators of rejection of Lula and Flávio, even if this does not translate into a declaration of vote for their opponents. Still in the questions asked to Gauchos, almost four in 10 voters want a state government independent of the PT and PL candidates.

This was the option chosen by 39% of voters interviewed by Quaest. The state is third in the country in this regard, behind only DF (42%) and ES (41%). (See all numbers below).

"Flávio is unable to mobilize the same bloc that Jair (Bolsonaro) mobilized. Lula is going to the seventh election. This generates a certain lack of attention among voters", analyzes Gonzalez.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/Presidency of the Republic; Vittor Sales

Gauchos also undecided in the state dispute

In the dispute for the government of RS, the number is even higher than in the election for president: 27% said they were undecided in the stimulated survey, in which the names of the candidates are presented.

Rio Grande do Sul is the second state with the most undecided voters in the gubernatorial election, behind only the state of Pará (29%) in this regard, and ahead of Rondônia (22%) and Goiás, Rio de Janeiro and Mato Grosso do Sul (20%).

The metric is also reflected in spontaneous research in which the candidates' names are not shown to voters. In this case, 74% of voters do not know who to vote for. It is the fourth largest indicator, behind only Minas Gerais (80%), Mato Grosso (78%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (77%).

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Undecided (stimulated)

29% — Pará

27% — Rio Grande do Sul

22% — Rondônia

20% — Goiás

20% — Rio de Janeiro

20% — Mato Grosso do Sul

19% — Minas Gerais

18% — Paraná

17% — Acre

17% — Maranhão

17% — Sergipe

16% — Amazon

16% — Tocantins

16% — Rio Grande do Norte

16% — Santa Catarina

15% — Espírito Santo

14% — Federal District

13% — São Paulo

12/13% — Bahia

12% — Ceará

12% — Paraíba

12% — Pernambuco

10% — Alagoas

9% — Roraima

8% — Amapá

8% — Mato Grosso

Undecided (spontaneous)

80% — Minas Gerais

78% — Mato Grosso

77% — Mato Grosso do Sul

74% — Rio Grande do Sul

74% — Goiás

74% — Espírito Santo

73% — Paraná

70% — Amazon

69% — Pará

69% — Rio de Janeiro

68% — Tocantins

66% — São Paulo

65% — Rondônia

65% — Alagoas

65% — Santa Catarina

64% — Maranhão

63% — Federal District

57% — Acre

57% — Paraíba

57% — Rio Grande do Norte

56% — Sergipe

54% — Bahia

53% — Ceará

40% — Roraima

40% — Pernambuco

35% — Amapá

Percentage of voters who want a state government independent of Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

42% — Federal District

41% — Espírito Santo

39% — Rio Grande do Sul

38% — Rio de Janeiro

38% — Santa Catarina

37% — Goiás

37% — São Paulo

36% — Ceará

36% — Rio Grande do Norte

35% — Roraima

35% — Paraná

35% — Mato Grosso do Sul

34% — Mato Grosso

33% — Amazon

31% — Amapá

31% — Pará

31% — Minas Gerais

30% — Rondônia

30% — Alagoas

30% — Bahia

29% — Pernambuco

28% — Tocantins

28% — Sergipe

25% — Maranhão

25% — Paraíba

24% — Paraná

*Bahia appears with two numbers in the survey stimulated due to two local scenarios in the state.

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