The weight of the raw material becomes central again for families with high gas consumption, for example for those who have independent heating. For gas, the Vulnerability Protection Service follows the trend of the wholesale market every month; for electricity, however, the conditions of the Greater Protection are updated quarterly. From 1 October 2026, Arera increased the reference price of electricity for the typical vulnerable customer by 37.3%, for the quarters of October, November and December 2026.
In a context of prices once again in tension, what makes the difference are above all the annual consumption and the economic conditions already in force in one's contract. In the electricity and gas bill, the expiry and therefore the end of the economic conditions is indicated on the title page and in the offer box, where the effective date also appears. It differs from the duration of the contract, which can be indefinite. For those who use gas for heating, this date clarifies whether the price will remain frozen throughout the winter or whether it will have to be renewed in the months of greatest consumption. Three months beforehand, it would be a good idea to check the supplier's communication.
If different economic conditions are proposed upon expiry, the seller must send written communication with at least three months' notice. They are usually dedicated communications, recognizable by titles such as 'Renewal proposal with modification of economic conditions'. These contain the expiry date of the offer, the new prices and the validity period, the offer code, the estimate of the new annual expenditure and the instructions for not accepting the renewal and withdrawing. They can arrive via e-mail, post or other agreed durable medium: they should therefore not be looked for as a simple attachment to the bill. With the proposal in hand you can make a comparison with the offers available on the market.
To date, 8 out of 10 users do not have the best rate and can save around 140 euros per year per supply point, on median, according to data based on over fifteen thousand bills analyzed every month. The simulations of the Segugio.it Observatory confirm that the level of consumption changes the result of the comparison. In Milan, for a family that also uses gas for heating and consumes 900 Sm3 per year, the estimated annual expenditure with the Vulnerability Protection Service is 1,399.76 euros, compared to 1,242.37 euros with the best fixed price gas offer on the free market found: this is a potential saving of 157.39 euros, equal to 11.2%.
With 220 Smc per year, profile without heating, the picture is reversed but the difference is minimal: 400.67 euros with protection and 402.36 euros with the best fixed rate. In this case the protection costs 1.69 euros less (+0.4% for the landline). It should be remembered, however, that the price of gas for the vulnerable varies on a monthly basis; therefore, it will fluctuate in the coming winter months. Arera has established that from 1 October 2026 the electricity bill of the typical vulnerable customer in Greater Protection will increase by 37.3% compared to the previous quarter. The reference price rises to 43.43 euro cents/kWh, taxes included.
The Segugio.it simulations show that the level of consumption is decisive even for electricity. With 1,200 kWh per year the estimated cost is almost identical: 471.03 euros in Greater Protection and 473.25 euros with the best landline. At 2,700 kWh, however, the fixed rate drops to 825.77 euros versus 896.13 euros for the protection: 70.36 euros less, equal to 7.9%. To check if your price is competitive, you can compare the electricity offers and, for gas, the fixed price offers. In this case, for the vulnerable the price fluctuates on a quarterly basis, therefore it will remain constant in October, November and December. It will then be updated to Arera for January-March 2027. For non-vulnerable domestic customers remaining in the Gradual Protection Service, the component linked to consumption follows the market on a monthly basis, no longer every three months as for the Greater Protection Service. Arera also indicates a negative annual fixed quota of -73.5737 euros/year: a particularly favorable element for those who consume little, because instead of having an expense regardless of the kWh used, you will have a discount.
