Russia lowers 2026 gas production forecast, raises pipeline export outlook

MOSCOW, September 24. /TASS/. Russia’s gas production forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.8% to 683.1 bln cubic meters under the baseline scenario, while the pipeline gas export forecast has been raised by 1.7% to 117.5 bln cubic meters and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) export forecast has been reduced to 35 mln metric tons, according to a document published on the Economic Development Ministry’s website.

Gas production is expected to rise to 683.1 bln cubic meters in 2026, compared with 662.7 bln cubic meters in 2025 and a previous forecast of 688.4 bln cubic meters for this year. Production is projected to increase to 696.1 bln cubic meters in 2027, compared with the previous forecast of 711.3 bln cubic meters; to 710.5 bln cubic meters in 2028, compared with 731.9 bln cubic meters previously; and to 740.1 bln cubic meters in 2029, compared with the previous forecast of 750.4 bln cubic meters.

Pipeline gas exports are expected to total 117.5 bln cubic meters in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of 115.5 bln cubic meters, before rising to 120.5 bln cubic meters in 2027, versus 125.5 bln cubic meters previously. They are then projected to fall to 115 bln cubic meters in 2028, compared with the previous forecast of 125 bln cubic meters, and edge up to 119.5 bln cubic meters in 2029, versus 127.5 bln cubic meters previously.

LNG exports are projected at 35 mln metric tons in 2026, with the forecast revised downward, compared with 30.3 mln metric tons in 2025. Exports are expected to reach 39.5 mln metric tons in 2027, 50.1 mln metric tons in 2028, and 64.5 mln metric tons in 2029.

Average contract gas prices, including supplies to CIS countries, are projected at around $313.3 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026, compared with the previous forecast of $268.5 and $253.9 in 2025. Prices are expected at $271.8 in 2027, versus $231.6 previously; $235.9 in 2028, versus $226.3 previously; and $227.3 in 2029, versus $227.7 previously.

As for gas prices for non-CIS countries, they are projected at $402.9 per 1,000 cubic meters in 2026, compared with $324 in 2025 and the previous forecast of $336.3, according to the ministry’s materials. Prices are expected at $341.1 in 2027, versus $275.7 previously; $289 in 2028, versus $267.8 previously; and $272.5 in 2029, versus $268.7 previously.