Russia's Oil and Gas Revenues Projected to Decline by 2029
Quick Look
Russia's oil and gas revenues are projected to drop from 3.3% of GDP in 2026 to 2.7% of GDP in 2029 due to stabilizing prices and a shrinking sector share, according to budget policy guidelines reviewed by TASS.
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Why It Matters
Guidelines for budget, tax, and customs tariff policy outline Russia's fiscal trajectory for 2027-2029.
MOSCOW, October 2. /TASS/. Russia’s oil and gas revenues will decline from 3.3% of GDP in 2026 to 2.7% of GDP in 2029 amid stabilizing price conditions and a shrinking share of the oil and gas sector in the economy, according to the main guidelines for budget, tax, and customs tariff policy for 2027 and the planning period of 2028 and 2029, reviewed by TASS.
"After reaching 5.5% of GDP in 2024, oil and gas revenues have been steadily declining, taking into account exchange rate trends, global energy prices, as well as the structure of hydrocarbon production and export volumes, and are estimated at 3.3% of GDP in 2026, followed by a further decline relative to GDP over the forecast horizon, to 2.7% in 2029, amid stabilizing price conditions and a declining share of the oil and gas sector in the economy," the document said.
In addition, a significant increase in federal budget revenues excluding oil and gas from key taxes is expected over the forecast horizon due to growth in the tax base, improved tax collection, and implemented and proposed changes to tax and other legislation.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Oil and gas revenues will decline to 2.7% of GDP by 2029
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific tax changes will boost non-oil revenues?
- How will exchange rate trends impact future projections?
